This conversation features Gavin Newsom, Governor of California, interviewing Ian Bremmer, founder and president of the Eurasia Group and G-Zero Media, a leading expert on geopolitical risk and global politics. The discussion was recorded during Bremmer's visit to San Francisco, bringing his East Coast perspective (he grew up in Chelsea, Massachusetts and lives in New York) to California.

The wide-ranging conversation covers the unprecedented geopolitical uncertainty driven by US policy whiplash, Trump's revolutionary approach to dismantling checks and balances, escalating conflicts from Ukraine to Venezuela, the breakdown of traditional alliances, and America's declining soft power. Bremmer draws on insights from his work, including Us Versus Them, to analyze how deglobalization and political dysfunction are reshaping the global order.

Key topics include Trump's failed attempts at diplomacy with Putin and Xi Jinping, the surprising effectiveness of Chinese leverage through critical minerals, NATO's strengthened but strained relationships, the likelihood of US military action in Venezuela, and the fundamental governance challenges facing American leadership in the AI age.

America as the Primary Source of Global Uncertainty

"Geopolitically, the biggest thing that is so unusual is that the United States we are now driving the greatest level of geopolitical uncertainty" - Bremmer argues America, not China or Russia, creates the most global instability

The core issue is "whiplash from one administration to the next" and "an unwillingness to be the reliable partner" on rules America itself instituted - collective security, free trade, rule of law

Trump 2.0 represents "so much more consolidated power" and willingness to "break the furniture" compared to his first term, driven by his belief that "my principal enemies are inside the house"

Three Revolutionary Attempts in Our Lifetime

Bremmer identifies three attempted revolutions with global impact: Deng Xiaoping's successful economic revolution in China, Gorbachev's failed political and economic revolution that collapsed the Soviet Union, and Trump's ongoing political revolution in the US

Trump seeks to "fundamentally change the US political system so there are no longer checks and balances on his presidency" - from administration, party, administrative state, judiciary, or media

Unlike China's economic revolution, Trump's is "a political though not an economic revolution" - despite some state capitalism elements like golden shares in Intel, US Steel, Nvidia, and AMD

China's Surprising Leverage Against Trump's Trade War

"Reality has punched him in the face" - Trump's attempt to force China to "bend the knee" through trade war failed as Xi Jinping wouldn't "get on the phone and jump"

China's leverage through critical minerals and rare earth licensing "surprised everyone" including the Trump administration, though their implementation affected EU relations negatively

Trump's global tariff average sits "between thirteen and seventeen" percent, the highest since the 1930s, but Supreme Court challenges to IEEPA authority could reduce it "three to six points"

"We've actually passed the tipping point where Trump's global unilateralism is really getting constrained" due to inflation, legal challenges, and need for allies

Saudi Arabia's Transformation and Controversial Relations

Saudi Arabia under Mohammed bin Salman has undergone shocking positive transformation - women went from 11% to 36% of workforce in ten years, "like a reverse Iranian Revolution"

"If there were elections in Saudi Arabia [MBS] would almost certainly win eighty eighty five ninety percent of the votes" due to social and economic diversification

Trump's whitewashing of Khashoggi assassination - saying "Mohammad bin Salman, he knew nothing about that" and calling Khashoggi "a bad guy" - undermines US values unnecessarily

Abraham Accords expansion to Saudi Arabia remains blocked until "clear pathway to a Palestinian state" - current Israeli leadership makes this "not happening"

Ukraine War Escalation and Putin's Humiliation of Trump

Trump's two-hour phone call with Putin offering sanctions relief, asset unfreezing, and Arctic cooperation was met with complete rejection - Putin "kind of humiliated Trump"

Ukrainian casualties "about three hundred thousand" in the last year alone, significantly higher than previous periods, with increasing difficulty getting reservists to fight

Bremmer fears escalation beyond current stalemate due to Ukraine's indigenous Flamingo missiles (3,000km range, 100 per month production) and Russian asymmetrical warfare inside NATO territory

"Russians just ordered agents to try to blow up a Polish train providing aid to Ukraine" after sending drones 300 kilometers into Poland - testing NATO response limits

Venezuela Military Action and Regional Strategy

"Close to one hundred percent" probability of direct US military strikes against Venezuelan targets - "I would be stunned if they don't"

Policy driven by Rubio, Ratcliffe, and Stephen Miller focusing on cocaine exports, illegal oil to Cuba/China, and ideological opposition to leftist regimes

"The expense and amount of material that Americans presently have arrayed off the coast is radically beyond what you would need" for just boat interdiction

Risk of "chaos" replacing Maduro - "chaos can easily be worse than the devil" as seen in Libya and Iraq

Alliance Damage and the Erosion of American Soft Power

"In thirty five years, people still want access to the US market and technologies, but nobody around the world looks at the US political system says I wish my political system ran like that"

Canadian tourism to US has "fallen off a fucking cliff" - hotel owners in Boston report massive drops, with only 1.9 million Canadians visiting California annually

Trump's approach creates "much stronger relations with individual European countries that we can drag into the dirt" rather than supporting a strong EU as a capable ally

American allies have gotten weaker over 30 years - "EU, UK, Canada, Japan, Australia, South Korea" all declining in "GDP, innovation, defense, growth, productivity, demographics"

AI Governance and the Future of American Leadership

"Americans should be the most excited about AI technology" but are instead scared due to lack of trust in leaders - "That is a governance issue"

AI concerns focus on "human beings that control and program the algorithms" rather than superintelligence - bad actors, indifference, or short-term profit focus

Need "more capitalism among AI folks" - accounting for societal losses and damages, not just profits, when rolling out technology

Young people offer hope - "more global, skeptical in healthy ways" with friends worldwide through gaming and social media, inheriting climate and political challenges from older generations

Deglobalization and the Epstein Files as Symbol of Systemic Corruption

Current period represents "the United States no longer driving globalization" rather than complete deglobalization - US "assertively moving away" while other processes continue

Drawing from Us Versus Them, Bremmer notes globalization created "winners and losers" but now faces political backlash as "politics are throwing sand in the gears"

"What Epstein represents to Americans are these assholes can get away with anything" - symbol of two-tier justice system and captured political system

Epstein files reflect decades of "wealthy Americans just not taking enough care of their fellow citizens" - fundamental failure of accountability among America's wealthiest