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Cory Levy and Balaji on Where Talent Should Go

The episode features Balaji Srinivasan, founder of Network School, discussing why building new cities and countries may be easier than reforming existing institutions like San Francisco or America.

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Key Takeaways
  1. 01

    "It was easier to start Netflix than reform Blockbuster, easier to start Bitcoin than reform the Fed, and easier to start a new city than reform San Francisco" - Balaji

  2. 02

    Gold has doubled against the dollar in two years while Bitcoin quadrupled, meaning the dollar dropped 50% against gold and 75% against digital gold

  3. 03

    The US is experiencing simultaneous economic, military, and political decline similar to the Soviet Union in 1991, India during partition, and China's civil war

  4. 04

    "Dollar inflation is global taxation" - every country holding US treasuries or stocks is taxed by American monetary policy, creating worldwide resentment

  5. 05

    Network School has brought people from over 100 countries in just one year, proving cloud communities can be printed into physical reality

  6. 06

    "Second passport is much more important than your first home" - political risk now outweighs technical risk for ambitious young people

  7. 07

    Regulatory harmonization allowed anonymous FDA bureaucrats to set health rules globally, but this system is collapsing as countries develop independent standards

  8. 08

    The next rules-based order is the code-based order: smart contracts replace Delaware law, Bitcoin replaces the dollar, crypto identity can't be denaturalized

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The episode features Balaji Srinivasan, founder of Network School, discussing why building new cities and countries may be easier than reforming existing institutions like San Francisco or America.

Balaji explains Network School's mission to "print out" cloud communities into physical reality, having brought people from over 100 countries to their location in just one year.

The conversation covers the simultaneous collapse of Western institutions, the death of the dollar against gold and Bitcoin, and why young talent should prioritize political risk over technical risk.

Balaji draws parallels between America's current state and three historical precedents: the Soviet Union in 1991, India during partition, and China's civil war, arguing most Americans are in denial about the severity of decline.

The discussion explores practical advice for ambitious young people, including visiting Dubai, Warsaw, Riyadh, Bangalore, Singapore, and Chinese cities to calibrate on global living standards.

Balaji concludes by outlining his vision for the internet as the successor to American empire, with crypto-based systems restoring trust through code rather than institutions.

Network School's Mission: Printing Cloud Communities into Reality

"Just like you take a Google doc and print it out, or an Amazon cart prints to your doorstep, or Uber prints to your door, we're taking a cloud community and printing it out in the physical world" - Balaji

Network School opened September 24, 2024, and has brought people from over 100 countries in just over one year of operation

"It feels like SF, the good parts of SF, like walking into a tech cafe" - Balaji describes the atmosphere as capturing Silicon Valley's best qualities without its dysfunction

The model aims to prove that startup societies and pop-ups can become the new startups, with Network School nodes scaling globally if the initial experiment succeeds

The Death of the Dollar: A 50-75% Collapse Against Hard Assets

Gold has doubled against the dollar in the last two years, while Bitcoin has quadrupled, meaning the dollar has dropped 50% against gold and 75% against digital gold

"There'll be some number where people realize I'm not getting wealthier, it's the dollar that's getting weaker" - Balaji predicts a sudden loss of confidence, possibly at $10,000/oz gold or $200,000 Bitcoin

Powell is talking about stimulating into an already high inflation economy, potentially for the 2026 midterms, according to analysis by Dalio

"Dollar inflation is global taxation" - it's not just Americans taxed by inflation, but the entire world participating in the US financial system through treasuries, stocks, and Delaware companies

Neutral global investors are fleeing US treasuries (at all-time high yields) into Chinese treasuries (at all-time low yields), gold, and digital gold

"This whole financial system is going to zero" - evidenced by asset seizures, government equity stakes in companies, tariffs, wealth taxes, remittance taxes, and property tax inflation

America's Denial: Three Historical Parallels for Current Collapse

"The West right now is in this weird stage where whether it's SVB or FTX or Biden, they deny and then it's just digital death, a square wave drop off" - Balaji on the pattern of sudden recognition

Biden's senility was obvious to many but denied through the 2020 election, four years of presidency, the Democrat primary, and six months of the general election until three months before the election

America's current state vector most closely resembles three historical precedents: Soviet Union in 1991 (ethnic nationalism plus economic collapse), India during partition (geographic division with mass migration), and China's civil war (communist versus nationalist)

The 1989 Soviet census showed Russians down to 51% of the population, with various ethnic groups feeling oppressed by Russians and vice versa, leading to breakup along ethnic and economic lines

"Blue Americans and red Americans don't vote for each other, don't socialize anymore (Blue Sky vs X), and don't marry each other - only 4% of Democrats married to Republicans" - Balaji argues it's an economic zone, not a country

"Green is the last thing holding them together" - when the dollar tears, the economic union comes apart because these are two tribes like Sunni and Shiite or Protestant and Catholic during the Thirty Years War

Elon's Surrender and the Withdrawal from Empire

"Our best guy went in and said the US government can't be reformed after going all in in an Elon way" - referring to Elon Musk's conclusion after attempting government reform

There has been an unreported "surrender to China" with Hegseth and Trump announcing "everlasting peace with China" after a recent meeting

The new national defense strategy reportedly withdraws American troops from East Asia back to the Western Hemisphere, marking a major strategic retreat

Bond yields are spiking simultaneously in US, UK, Germany, Italy, France, Japan, and Canada, with headlines suggesting UK and France may need IMF bailouts - "but isn't the IMF composed of these countries?"

Tariffs are telling other countries "don't send your shoes from Vietnam to America for print dollars" because ultimately that's all America sends back - the trade deficit means dollars are becoming worthless outside America

Living Standards Will Plummet: From 3 Billion to 300 Million

"If you go from three billion people to 300 million people, your printing is spread over 90% fewer people, so your inflation is way up" - Balaji on the contraction of dollar economic zone

The US passport has dropped out of the top 10 globally due to reciprocity rules - countries like Brazil make it hard for Americans to enter because America makes it hard for them

"US identity is being devalued" along with US currency, making it harder for Americans to get out while taxes increase and violence escalates (CEO shootings, Charlie Kirk shooting)

Most Americans understand 1945, 1865, and 1776 but not 1917, 1991, 1949, or 1947 - they lack experiential understanding of genuine catastrophe that immigrants from Cuba, China, India, Russia, and Jewish communities possess

"The longer you've been in America, the less you've experienced genuine catastrophe" - 10th generation Americans think it will always get better, similar to people thinking real estate always goes up

Talent Calibration: Visit Dubai, Warsaw, Riyadh, and Shenzhen

"At a minimum you should visit Dubai, Warsaw, Riyadh, Bangalore, Singapore, Ho Chi Minh City, and Shenzhen, plus a number 52 city in China you've never heard of" - Balaji's calibration tour for young talent

These cities have higher living standards than much of the US and are not third world backwaters as they were in 1991 - "history's run in reverse over the last 30 years"

"The former first world is becoming quote third world and vice versa" but there aren't Hollywood movies showing this, and Anglo media is increasingly insular

"Our friends say 'we're building, we're building' and I love them, but it's as if they're solving the Riemann hypothesis on the Titanic" - the vector on which they're accelerating is not the vector on which they're decelerating

Outside the US, it's actually possible to build in the physical world because regulations and rules that confine Americans to digital world building don't exist elsewhere

Regulatory Harmonization's Collapse: FDA Rules for the World

"Some anonymous bureaucrat in Silver Spring, Maryland is setting essentially the health rules for the whole world" - until recently, even China's FDA respected American FDA decisions

Countries structured themselves with FDA equivalents and SEC equivalents, copying the American political system through regulatory harmonization where all countries "sing together in harmony"

Pharma companies could get US approvals and ship worldwide in a homogeneous market, but anonymous bureaucrats who can't be elected or fired set rules for the entire world

Five workarounds exist to escape the FDA system: right-to-try laws, LDT and CLIA for clinical laboratory tests, compounding pharmacies for mixing drugs, off-label prescription, and medical tourism

"The major opportunity for talent is be mobile, be global, and realize there's advantages of being outside 20th century regulatory spheres - that doesn't mean no regulation, just better rules"

As American empire recedes, regulatory harmonization also recedes, creating massive opportunities for innovation in the physical world outside Western regulatory spheres

San Francisco's Precarious Position: The Eric Adams Era

San Francisco could be saved if someone with Zuck or Elon's drive emerges, but "most people in the Bay Area don't understand the severity of their situation"

"They're building AI in the bluest city and bluest state saying they'll make billions by putting lots of blues out of work" - lawyers, doctors, bureaucrats, journalists, artists, filmmakers already hit by inflation

Tech guys are massively outnumbered in a state where people are already setting self-driving cars on fire, shooting CEOs, and calling for wealth taxes

California proposed a 5% wealth tax on 200 billionaires that's retroactive - if passed in 2026, anyone in the state in 2025 gets taxed on their 2025 stock value

"San Francisco is in its Eric Adams era" - it went from terrible to better under London Breed, similar to NYC going from de Blasio to Eric Adams, but then NYC got worse with Mdani

Tech could do okay or great even as economic conditions deteriorate because "the future is not blue America versus red America, but the internet versus China"

Platform Risk: Delaware, Dollars, and Bad Bets

"Tech talent thinks about technical risk but not political risk" - this encapsulates the core problem with building in America today

"If you think of the state as a platform, the platform in which you're building is ridiculously important" - building on Blackberry vs iOS/Android, or Windows desktop vs web apps

Examples of bad platforms today: building on Delaware incorporation (many have had problems), holding US dollars (down significantly vs Bitcoin), and centralizing in the Bay Area

In 2020, the Fed set the reserve ratio to zero - "it's no longer fractional reserve banking, it's fictional reserve banking" with banks having massively negative equity

"Only invest in US dollars what you can afford to lose" - Balaji's personal policy is "minimum necessary America" with less than $250k in US bank accounts

During SVB crisis, Fed replaced FDIC insurance with "Fed-TIC insurance" by printing the difference, revealing the entire system is a zombie financial system

Best Fiat Currencies: UAE Dirham and Singapore Dollar

"Don't hold any of the G7 fiat currencies" - not just the dollar, but Canadian dollar, British pound, euro, yen are all in the same collapsing American empire class

Switzerland is no longer independent after doing Russia sanctions, Obama ending Swiss bank accounts, and Credit Suisse debacle wiping out bondholders - "Switzerland ain't Switzerland anymore"

"What is Switzerland? Bitcoin. Crypto. That's genuinely neutral rule of law, truly neutral, not based on human opinion"

In the fiat world, UAE dirham and Singapore dollar are best choices - both pegged to dollar but run on their own ledgers with sophisticated financial managers

Both are very large currencies by float with massive capital flows, so individual deposits won't be noticed in the noise

Stablecoins may create a scenario where all local fiat currencies lose to USD stablecoins (and maybe Chinese yuan), which then get devalued against BTC - "the world first dollarizes, then Bitcoinizes"

Second Passports Over First Homes: Mobility as Priority

"Second passport is much more important than your first home" - for many people, visas may be sufficient without full passports

Jewish descent enables aliyah to Israel for passport, Indian descent gets OCI card (overseas citizen of India), European descent has various citizenship-by-blood provisions for Irish, Italian-Americans, etc.

Three dozen countries now offer digital nomad visas, and China just opened up a K visa for easier access

Many old world countries have provisions for citizenship by blood rather than by law, creating opportunities for Americans with immigrant heritage

Young people want to get plane tickets to San Francisco, but Balaji argues this is consensus thinking when "the most important things happen with informed numerical anti-consensus views"

The Thiel Fellowship was extremely non-consensus when launched - people forget how controversial it was to suggest dropping out of college, but it produced Vitalik Buterin, Dylan Field, and other exceptional founders

Code-Based Order Replacing Rules-Based Order

"The internet is to America as America was to the UK" - version 3.0 going from common law to constitution to smart contract, from 30-50 million Brits to 300 million Americans to billions of internet users

"The next rules-based order is the code-based order" - smart contracts, Bitcoin you can trust more than dollar, smart contracts more than Delaware

Crypto identity can't be denaturalized - "your ENS or SNS, your Ethereum Name System login can't be yanked from you in the same way your American identity can be"

"We restore trust by reducing the need for trust with cryptographic trust" - building an entire parallel legal system already at multi-trillion dollar scale

Crypto is already the third or fourth largest exchange in the world - NYSE and NASDAQ are about to get flipped, having already passed Shanghai

Hundreds of millions of people are already in the crypto system and it's growing - "something at hundreds of millions of people that's growing is eventually the successor to the rules-based order"

"When a system crashes, you reboot from cloud backup" - that's what will happen with crypto as the backup for failed traditional institutions

Network School as Life's Work: Building the Alternative

"Zuck once said if he sold Facebook he would just go back to doing Facebook" - Balaji may do Network School for the rest of his life because it's that important

"This is something I've been working on for 10 plus years, and I work on it every day, every hour of every day because we need an alternative"

"The United States was an alternative to the wars of Europe" - similarly, the internet and internet societies will be an alternative to what is coming

The contrarian bet on Network School mirrors the contrarian nature of the Thiel Fellowship, betting against consensus that San Francisco is the only place for ambitious young people

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