Ross Douthat interviews Amitav Acharya, a prominent international relations scholar who has written about multiplex world order, discussing India's unique position in 21st-century geopolitics. Acharya, drawing from his scholarship including The End of American World Order, explores how India navigates relationships with multiple powers while maintaining strategic autonomy.

The conversation covers India's slower but steady development path compared to China, its demographic dividend advantage, and recent trade breakthroughs with Europe. They examine India's complex relationships with Russia, Pakistan, and China, while analyzing the growing influence and backlash against the Indian diaspora in America and Europe.

India's Economic Rise and Demographic Advantage

India's growth rates are currently higher than China's, but it started from a lower economic base and faces significant employment generation challenges for its young population.

Unlike China's collapsed birth rate due to the one-child policy, India enters the demographic dividend sweet spot with a large young population and fewer elderly dependents to support.

"India can never be like the factory of the world, like China is, but in terms of a combination of services, technology, and manufacturing combined package, India can do quite well" - Acharya.

The 'Mother of All Trade Deals' with Europe

The India-EU trade agreement removes 18-19% tariffs on Indian exports and opens European markets to Indian agricultural products, textiles, and mechanical goods.

The deal allows increased Indian migration to Europe, potentially addressing India's unemployment while filling Europe's demographic needs.

"The significance is more political than economic" - Acharya, describing how the deal creates psychological effects by linking two major economic powers.

Strategic Multi-Alignment with Russia and the West

India's relationship with Russia dates to the 1970s when Nixon deployed the Seventh Fleet during the 1971 India-Pakistan war, forcing India to conclude a defense treaty with the Soviet Union.

India became heavily reliant on discounted Russian oil during the Ukraine war, though most Indian oil previously came from the Middle East.

"India felt that it could maintain good relations with the traditional partner, the Russians, continue to get weapons... but at the same time, cultivate closer relations with the US" - Acharya on multi-alignment strategy.

The policy works "as long as the United States" doesn't say "it's either you're with us or you're against us," but Trump's approach forces India to choose sides.

Indian Diaspora Success and Backlash in America

Indian Americans hold 60% of H-1B visas, creating perceptions of ethnic dominance in Silicon Valley and contributing to populist backlash.

"I have heard this story about Indian dominance of Silicon Valley as a factor why many non-Indians, especially from Southeast Asia, have left Silicon Valley" - Acharya on diaspora conduct.

Indian Americans are becoming more conservative politically, possibly as an assimilation strategy in Republican-leaning regions outside liberal coastal states.

Modi has used diaspora events like Madison Square Garden and "Howdy Modi" in Texas as foreign policy tools to demonstrate Indian American influence.

India's Great Power Aspirations vs China's Superpower Drive

"Indians don't want to be a superpower in the same sense as China... In China, there's an obsession of being number one... India just wants to have status" - Acharya on different strategic goals.

India sees itself as a status quo power rather than revisionist, seeking recognition as a great power without China's territorial ambitions.

Indians feel they're "not getting the fair recognition that they deserve" because "everybody's obsessed with China," creating a sense of inadequate respect.

2060 Vision: Third Largest Economy with Soft Power

In the optimistic scenario, India becomes the world's third largest economy with significantly reduced gaps behind China and the United States.

"India's main problem is not human resources or lack of talent, it's the domestic politics. India has serious domestic frictions" - Acharya on key challenges.

Success depends on maintaining political unity and avoiding "domestic breakdown," turning "very nationalistic," or wars with Pakistan and China.

"India will not be a divisive country in world order... There will be an asset to the West" - Acharya on India's potential unifying global role.