Elliott Abrams, former Assistant Secretary of State under Reagan, George W. Bush, and Trump's first term, joins Ross Douthat to analyze the recent developments in Venezuela following Nicolas Maduro's removal. Abrams has extensive experience in Latin American policy and coups, having been a long-time advocate for overthrowing Maduro's regime.

The conversation examines whether the current approach represents genuine regime change or merely a change of leadership, with Abrams expressing skepticism about working with what he calls 'a bunch of criminals' still controlling Venezuela. The discussion covers the geopolitical implications of Venezuelan alliances with Iran, Hezbollah, Russia, and China, as well as the country's role in drug trafficking and the refugee crisis affecting Latin America.

Abrams draws on his experience from successful democratic transitions in 1980s Latin America, arguing that Venezuela requires a negotiated settlement between democratic forces and the military, similar to transitions in Chile, Argentina, and Uruguay. The conversation also explores the broader questions of Trump administration foreign policy and whether it represents continuity or departure from Reagan-era approaches to democracy promotion.

The Case for Venezuelan Regime Change

Abrams authored How to Topple Maduro Why Regime Change is the Only Way Forward in Venezuela for Foreign Affairs in November, arguing that Venezuela's transformation from a leading Latin American democracy under Chavez and Maduro into a 'brutal dictatorship' necessitates regime change.

The Venezuelan crisis has created 8 million refugees - 'about a fourth of the population' - representing 'the greatest refugee flow in the history of Latin America' and creating difficulties for neighboring countries including the United States.

Venezuela poses security threats by hosting 'Cuban thugs and Hezbollah and Iran, as well as Russia and China,' with Iran providing drone technology and contemplating intermediate-range missiles that could reach the continental United States.

The regime supports Cuba's survival by providing 'substantial amount of subsidized or free oil to Cuba, which is propping up that vicious regime.'

Criminal Networks and Drug Trafficking

Abrams dismisses the fentanyl connection as 'completely phony' but confirms Venezuela's role in cocaine trafficking: 'The coca comes from Colombia and moves east into Venezuela and is trafficked out of Venezuela... much of it, I think goes toward Europe.'

The ELN guerrilla group, 'heavily engaged in drug trafficking now, is mostly in western Venezuela, having been driven out, substantially driven out of Colombia by the cooperation between the U.S. and the governments of Colombia.'

Iran and Hezbollah received operational support: 'the Maduro regime gave them blank passports so that agents of Iran and Hezbollah could be moving around Latin America and elsewhere under false identities.'

Current Policy Limitations and Alternatives

Abrams criticizes the current approach: 'we don't seem to have that policy. The regime is still in place in Caracas fully' and questions relying on 'a bunch of criminals' to voluntarily transition to democracy.

The fundamental problem is 'we are relying on them to conduct a reform program... we are relying on a bunch of criminals to drive themselves from power willingly to commit suicide.'

Abrams proposes supporting democratic negotiations: 'Edmundo Gonzalez is the legitimate president... Maria Corina Machado is obviously the leader of the opposition. We then... foster a negotiation to settle all of those questions.'

Military options remain available beyond Maduro's capture: 'drone strikes or airstrikes... We could take the oil facilities, you know, put troops in there. We could kill leaders of the regime.'

Historical Precedents and Military Negotiations

Successful Latin American transitions required negotiations 'between the people in power and the democratic political force' covering amnesty, election timelines, and media access, taking 'months and months, if not years.'

The Venezuelan military differs from past cases due to 'massive presence of Cuban intelligence agents whose job was to coup-proof the regime by making sure that dissidents in the army were found and killed or jailed.'

Democratic messaging to the military should emphasize: 'This is a big country... We need an army. We need a professional army. We need you. We will have a better army. We will have a modern army. We'll have an army that's not corrupt.'

Venezuela differs from Middle Eastern interventions: 'This is not the Middle East. There are no Sunnis and Shias and Kurds and Druze shooting at each other. This is a homogeneous society with a long history of democracy.'

Reagan Era Policy and Democratic Transitions

U.S. support for dictators 'ended starting in about 1970, 75' and 'we've been on the right side of this for a very long time, and we ought to stay on the right side.'

Reagan administration actively pushed for democratic transitions: 'Ronald Reagan supported, quotes, the dictator, Chun Doo-hwan, in South Korea. He embraced him and pushed him out. He embraced Ferdinand Marcos in the Philippines and pushed him out.'

In El Salvador, 'We supported José Napoleon Duarte, the Christian Democrat. He was elected president. He led El Salvador into democracy. And what happened to the FMLN guerrillas? They laid down their arms.'

The policy goal was clear: 'What's the goal? Who are you trying to help? And the answer in El Salvador was, in that case, the Christian Democrats and a return to democracy.'

Trump Administration Internal Dynamics

Abrams sees internal debate: 'I think Secretary Rubio... would like to see democracy in Venezuela, in Cuba, in Nicaragua. I think the president has no real interest in that.'

The president's focus on oil puzzles Abrams: 'I've talked to a number of people in the oil industry... People in the industry know there's no great oil bonanza here.'

The timing remains mysterious: 'Think of what's going on in the world, you know, from Gaza to Ukraine, Taiwan. Why did the president elevate this? Why is Venezuela so important?'

Abrams warns against abandoning core U.S. assets: 'they are threatening our alliance system... Secondly, I believe one of our greatest assets is the association of the United States with the cause of liberty.'