Carlo Masala, director of the Center for Intelligence and Security Studies at the University of the Armed Forces of Germany in Munich, discusses his international bestseller If Russia Wins, translated into 23 languages. Masala co-hosts the German podcast Sicherheitshalber and brings deep expertise in European security architecture and NATO dynamics.

The conversation centers on Masala's 2028 scenario where a new Russian president captures the Estonian city of Narva, NATO fails to respond, and the alliance effectively collapses. This fictional but plausible sequence explores how Russia could achieve strategic goals without full-scale invasion, exploiting Western reluctance to fight over 'just a city.'

Discussion ranges from Germany's rearmament challenges and personnel shortages to the broader transformation of NATO, America's shifting global strategy, and the rise of hyper-nationalism threatening European unity. Masala argues that resilient societies willing to defend democracy are more crucial than military hardware alone.

The Narva Scenario: How NATO Could Collapse Over One City

If Russia Wins depicts a 2028 scenario where new Russian president 'Obmanshchikov' (literally 'the deceiver') charms the West while secretly planning to capture Narva, Estonia's 50,000-resident border city.

NATO's failure to defend even one city breaks Article 5's mutual defense guarantee: 'If you start this debate whether a city is enough to be considered an armed attack... you chop away one of the most important pillars of NATO' - Masala.

The scenario assumes Western desire to 'get back to business' with Russia after Ukraine war ends, creating political pressure to avoid military confrontation over territorial disputes.

Alliance collapse wouldn't require formal withdrawals but would render NATO irrelevant as countries seek alternative security arrangements outside the integrated command structure.

NATO's Structural Transformation and American Withdrawal

US Ambassador to NATO indicated Europeans should 'take over NATO more or less' by 2027, with rumors of German or French Supreme Allied Commanders replacing Americans.

American forces in Europe may be 'double assigned' to other combatant commands, making them unavailable for European defense despite maintaining 70,000 troops on continent.

Europeans lack critical 'strategic enablers' provided by US: '70% of ISR capabilities in NATO are provided by the US. If the US won't share them, European forces would be blind in theater' - Masala.

Potential revival of Western European Union as European-only defense structure with integrated military command, separate from both NATO and EU frameworks.

Germany's Rearmament Challenge: Money vs. Manpower

German procurement is 'spending money like hell' on tanks, fighter planes, frigates and drones, with equipment delivery timeline progressing rapidly despite multi-year manufacturing delays.

Personnel crisis remains unsolved: Bundeswehr needs 260,000 active plus 200,000 reserve but maintains only 185,000, with government refusing to reinstate conscription system.

'As long as we are more afraid of administrative courts and accounting officers than of the Russian armed forces, we won't have a Zeitenwende' - Masala on peacetime bureaucratic structures hindering crisis preparation.

If 2029 Russian capability assessment proves accurate, current peacetime procurement structures are inadequate for four-year preparation timeline requiring 'quick, fast, dirty' decision-making.

The Resilient Society Problem: Europe's Home Front Weakness

'You lose wars on two fronts: on the battlefield and at the home front. If the home front doesn't stand, there's no point sending forces abroad' - Masala on societal preparedness requirements.

European societies unprepared for wartime conditions including checkpoints, travel restrictions, curfews, and economic sacrifices that Ukrainian civilians currently experience daily.

Geographic proximity to Russia correlates with societal resilience: 'Every tree would shoot back' in Estonia versus much lower determination in France, Germany, or Italy.

Political leadership must shift from protecting citizens from difficult realities to explicitly requesting their cooperation: 'You need to tell people that you need them' - Masala.

Ukraine as Europe's Strategic Asset and First Defense Line

Ukraine will possess Europe's only 'battle-hardened' non-Russian forces post-war, with NATO forces learning more from Ukrainians than vice versa after four years of combat experience.

Integration proposal: treat Ukraine as 'advanced partner' in all NATO structures below full membership, including multinational units and joint drone capabilities with European forces.

Ukrainian brigades could supplement European manpower shortages: Germany struggles to deploy one brigade to Lithuania while Ukraine maintains over 100 brigades.

Deterrence strategy requires presenting Russia with united front 'from Norway in the north all the way through Ukraine to the Black Sea' preventing theater isolation.

The Rise of Hyper-Nationalism and Democratic Defense

US transformation from hegemonic power maintaining international order to global power with 'no ambition of keeping up a certain order' - fundamental shift in American strategy.

'We're moving into a world of hyper nationalism where your nation is above others will dominate international relations' affecting US, China, Russia, and increasingly European politics.

US and Russia 'disagree on everything but are very much in line' on destroying the European Union, each pursuing this goal through different methods.

'Democracies with awareness that democracies have to be defended won the two biggest battles of the 20th century' against fascism and communism - Masala on historical precedent for optimism.