The episode features the All-In podcast hosts Jason Calacanis, Chamath Palihapitiya, and David Friedberg recording live from The Venetian in Las Vegas during F1 weekend, joined by professional poker players Alan Keating and Phil Helmuth.

The conversation covers the release of the Epstein files following near-unanimous congressional votes, with discussion of Larry Summers stepping down from OpenAI and Harvard after emails revealed communication with Epstein through 2019.

Major technology topics include Tether's explosive growth as a stablecoin business, Google's Gemini 3 release trained on proprietary TPUs, and Michael Burry's controversial claims about tech companies' depreciation accounting practices.

The hosts also discuss NVIDIA's continued dominance despite competition, the future of AI chip architecture, and OpenAI's declining market position as competitors gain ground in various segments.

Epstein Files Release and Political Implications

The House voted 427-1 and Senate passed unanimously to release the Epstein files, with Trump signing the bill after initial reversal

The single abstention came from Representative Higgins, who argued it "reveals and injures thousands of innocent people, witnesses, people who provided alibis, family members"

AG Pam Bondi addressed concerns by stating they won't release information from open investigations and will remove names that could harm individuals

Larry Summers appeared in released emails communicating with Epstein through 2019, asking for dating advice, and subsequently stepped down from OpenAI and was put on leave from Harvard

"The fact that we haven't seen much of anything other than some photos means that there's nothing there related to Trump" - Chamath, explaining why Trump likely wasn't implicated

"It seems to be tainting the Democratic establishment elite more than the Republicans. It explains why there were so few leaks in the last four years" - Chamath

One victim claimed "there's a thousand of us" according to reports from the files

Jason's Personal Epstein Encounters at TED

Jason met Epstein "a half dozen times" at TED conference billionaires dinners in the 1990s, where Epstein was giving donations to scientists at MIT and other institutions

"When he went away and he got busted in Miami, the way it was framed in the TED community was that he was set up and this was just like an underage girl" - Jason

Jason's theory: "I think he's a spy. I think he worked for intelligence agencies" based on his interest in top scientists and universities

"He had cameras everywhere and they've talked about this. So I think you're saying he recorded famous people and then used that to get things" - Jason

Leon Black, founder of Apollo, paid Epstein $168 million in one year for "tax advice," which led to Black resigning from Apollo

"I am hard-pressed to understand what advice could have been given to me that where I would have paid $168 million" - Chamath on the implausibility of the tax advice explanation

Jason's prediction: "We're going to find out that some intelligence agency was somehow involved in this. And that's why it's being covered up"

Epstein was communicating with people from Israel, CIA, and Russians in leaked emails

Jason believes it could be "one of the big three" intelligence agencies

Tether's Explosive Growth and Business Model

Chamath had dinner with Paolo Ardoino, CEO and founder of Tether, describing it as "an incredible business" with 500 million users globally

"His user base is growing by 30 million users a quarter. It's the financial inclusion that then ties back to US dollar hegemony" - Chamath

Tether holds $183 billion in circulating stablecoins, with $135 billion in US Treasuries and another $10 billion in Bitcoin, gold, and land

The business model: users exchange local currency for dollar-pegged tokens, Tether invests the dollars in US Treasuries and earns the interest spread

"They were making $7, $8 billion a year just on the holdings" - Jason

Profit margins estimated at 95%+ because "you only need 100 people to run the business" - Chamath

"The word on the street is a $500 billion market cap, which would be roughly 50 times their price to sales ratio" - Chamath

Stablecoin holders don't earn treasury yields directly due to banking lobby influence on legislation, though this may change over time

Banks fought to prevent stablecoin providers from paying interest to consumers

Companies work around this with "rewards" programs instead of direct interest payments

"In Kenya, the last thing you're probably thinking is, do I get the 4%? What you're more worried about is the Kenyan currency is about to depreciate another 60% this year" - Chamath on the value proposition

Jason acknowledged being "super critical of Tether publicly" but credited them for cleaning up their act, moving from attestations to audits

Google's Gemini 3 and TPU Breakthrough

Google released Gemini 3, regaining the lead on most benchmarks with Polymarket giving them 89% odds to finish the year as top LLM

Major speculation that Gemini 3 was trained entirely on Google's TPUs rather than NVIDIA GPUs, marking a significant shift in chip dependency

"TPU is an incredible product. This latest spin is very profound" - Chamath on Google's chip architecture

Multiple tech giants are developing custom silicon: "Grok is one, TPU is one, Microsoft has a spin, Amazon has inferentia. Facebook is apparently spinning up their own silicon" - Chamath

"On the enterprise side, Anthropic is just absolutely crushing" while Google dominates consumer chat through existing distribution

"OpenAI started with 100% of the market and they're only going down" - Jason, predicting OpenAI as the big loser

Facing competition from Google, Anthropic, and Grok consistently beating them on leaderboards

Startup community doesn't trust OpenAI with their data due to competitive concerns

Jason's prediction: "I'm going to take the other side of it. I think the search franchise is going to grow and that Google is not going to lose to ChatGPT"

AI gains in advertising targeting will offset any revenue per search decline

Number of searches will increase along with improved targeting

Michael Burry's Depreciation Claims Debunked

Michael Burry claimed tech companies are "cooking the books" by depreciating AI chips over six years instead of three years

Friedberg downloaded GAAP depreciation rules: "Depreciation must reflect the assets estimated useful life, not market innovation"

"Under the GAAP standards, you set a useful life and you reset that useful life as you do a reassessment on when you're actually using that asset"

"The difference between three and six years is roughly 12% of their profit" - Friedberg, explaining the actual impact on Google's financials

"If they're still making revenue on that chip every year, you're still using it, it's still generating revenue for them" - Friedberg on why six-year depreciation is justified

"Burry's implication that they are cooking the books or hiding accounting is completely false because all of the accounting is apparent in the cash flow statement and in the balance sheet" - Friedberg

"I think we've given this guy way too much airtime. He's not very good at what he does" - Chamath on Burry

NVIDIA's Dominance and Future Competition

NVIDIA reported blowout quarter with revenue up 62% year over year, 22% quarter over quarter, and net income of $31.9 billion up 65% year over year

Jensen Huang stated NVIDIA is "sold out everywhere" with $65 billion expected this quarter

"You can kind of think about inference in machine vision and robotics. You don't necessarily need an H100 to do that. You can use a purpose-built chip" - Friedberg on market fragmentation

"In the core data center environment, you may end up having models that are different for graph neural nets versus LLMs. There are going to be different chips" - Friedberg

Friedberg's prediction: "My early prediction for 2026 is Huawei, where I think that there's lithography technology that exists in China that is not publicly discussed"

Huawei could create "at a very low cost, probably very high volume" chips that rival expensive alternatives

Timeline: announcements likely in 2026

"Chip architecture is being redesigned with AI. So AI can design better chips" - Friedberg on accelerating innovation

Friedberg's Venture Studio Journey to CEO

Friedberg ran The Production Board venture studio but is now focused entirely on Ohalo as CEO, with TPB becoming a holding company

"I was delusional" - Friedberg on initially thinking he could successfully be chairman rather than CEO of portfolio companies

Previous attempts at being chairman failed: "Both those companies ended up being net negative returners for me" referring to a quinoa restaurant and other ventures

"I realized how frustrating it was to be on a board where you would tell a CEO a bunch of stuff, they wouldn't listen, they would do whatever they wanted to do" - Friedberg

"I saw the movie Oppenheimer in IMAX and I left that movie and I cried and I realized I wasn't doing what I should be" - Friedberg on his decision to become CEO

"I swore after I sold Climate Corp, I swear I would never be a CEO again. It was damaging to my health. It consumes me" - Friedberg

LPs were "very supportive" saying "this is exactly what we always hoped you would do, was to find a winner"

Ohalo received close to $40 million in research investment over several years before breakthrough results emerged

Alan Keating's Psychology-Based Poker Strategy

Alan Keating was the seed investor in Polymarket and is known for soul-reading opponents in high-stakes poker

"Keating at his core is an exceptional player. What he can do is he can soul read people, which when you're playing at the high stakes, honestly, that's all that matters" - Chamath

Famous hand against Doug Polk: Keating called with 4-2 against Polk's Ace-King in a $600-700K pot

"I think I'm navigating fear. When people are afraid, they tend to give things away or get scared or act different" - Keating on his approach

"Doug had the same tonality, same cadence, and he was just stealing" about an hour and a half before the big hand - Keating on identifying tells

"I wanted to always kind of have a sense of humor around whatever happens to me. If I put myself in a spot, I've gotten to a point where I can immediately recognize how ridiculous what I just did was" - Keating

"I like making the bet where if it doesn't work out, I'm in a little bit of trouble. It feels real" - Keating on his risk tolerance

Keating's decision-making process: calls experts like Chamath to "earmark all the reasoning" before making major investment decisions, even when planning to go against advice

"I want to remember his take, my take, my feelings, other people's thoughts. I want to remember everything about this decision"

This mirrors "super forecasting" techniques where documenting decision permutations improves future judgment

"There's some purity or beauty in the chaos after everyone's prepared. I'm interested in that space, and I have no interest in the space that everyone's prepared" - Keating