This segment features Grant, a crypto and macro analyst, in conversation with host Steve, discussing asset performance during the Iran conflict and the broader investment landscape for the second half of the year. The conversation covers gold, Bitcoin, and decentralized finance (DeFi) tokens.

The discussion opens with a comparison of gold and Bitcoin price behavior during the recent geopolitical crisis, examining whether moves were fundamental or speculative. Grant argues that while both assets have strong long-term foundations rooted in global debt and deficit imbalances, short-term price action has been dominated by momentum and return-chasing flows. The conversation then pivots to the emerging revenue story in crypto, with Hyperliquid, Uniswap, and AAVE cited as examples of DeFi protocols benefiting from both regulatory clarity and real, measurable earnings.

Gold vs. Bitcoin: Crisis Performance and Speculative Flows

Gold just finished or is about to finish its worst quarter in years, while Bitcoin was up early in the Iran conflict — though the host notes this may reflect Bitcoin being oversold and gold being overbought rather than a fundamental shift.

The World Gold Council released a report showing central banks are increasingly repatriating gold from London and New York, suggesting a growing need for secure, sovereign stores of value.

"Both of these assets are, in my view, cornerstone assets of the global financial system, extremely important assets, and should be held in most types of diversified portfolios, physical gold and digital Bitcoin." - Grant

Grant notes that Bitcoin is significantly more easily transferable than gold, which could be a structural advantage if central bank repatriation trends continue.

The Gold Megatrend: From Fundamentals to Speculative Excess

The gold megatrend began in 2022 with Russia's invasion of Ukraine and the subsequent sanctions on Russia's central bank, which triggered a new era of central bank gold accumulation.

Prices rose from approximately $4,000 to $5,500, but Grant believes the move from $4,000 onward was largely driven by return-chasing and speculative retail activity rather than fundamentals.

Speculative intensity has since rotated away from precious metals toward chip and semiconductor equities, perpetual futures, and pre-IPO trades.

"I personally think that gold and Bitcoin both look pretty good here, and a lot of that speculative excess has come out at this point." - Grant

DeFi Revenue Story: Valuing Protocols Like Businesses

Grant identifies protocol revenue and earnings as the central investor focus in crypto right now, with regulatory clarity enabling teams to restructure and openly discuss token value accrual.

Hyperliquid is cited as a flagship example: a clear blockchain use case in financial technology that generates substantial revenue and distributes it back to token holders.

Grant's team recently published a report applying classic discounted cash flow (DCF) valuation analysis to set a price target on the AAVE token, mirroring similar work done on Uniswap.

Standard Chartered issued what amounts to a buy rating on Uniswap, reflecting growing institutional interest in valuing DeFi protocols on revenue fundamentals.

"In the context of the Clarity Act, tokenized assets, stablecoins, there's going to be a huge focus on where are the revenue-producing projects in crypto." - Grant

Macro Foundation: Debt and Deficits as the Long-Term Bull Case

Grant argues that both gold and Bitcoin have strong fundamental foundations tied to persistent global deficit and debt imbalances that are unlikely to resolve over any short time horizon.

Investors with longer time horizons are encouraged to view current drawdowns — after speculative retail activity has been washed out — as potential allocation opportunities in both assets.

A diversified basket of DeFi assets is suggested as a potentially well-timed position given the convergence of the revenue narrative and regulatory tailwinds.

Resources Mentioned

We Are Their Heaven Why the Dead Never Leave Us

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