Steve Ehrlich, head of research at Sharplink, interviews Charles Myers, founder and CEO of Signum Global Advisors. Myers is a geopolitical risk expert who served as senior foreign policy advisor to Hillary Clinton (2016) and Joe Biden (2020), plus former vice chairman of investment bank EverCorps.

The conversation covers escalating geopolitical tensions including high-stakes Iran diplomacy, Venezuelan regime change, AI market dynamics, and crypto market fundamentals. Myers leads a 22-partner firm across seven global offices specializing in volatility events affecting markets and economies.

Key topics include the redefinition of America First foreign policy, institutional concerns about U.S. governance, prediction market accuracy, and the intersection of industrial policy with national security priorities.

America First Means Global Military Expansion

Myers argues America First was 'always going to be about more than just domestic priorities' and includes 'pretty aggressive protectionism' plus 'a much more assertive, muscular, and imperialist foreign policy'

Traditional geopolitical frameworks must be discarded because 'this is a president and an administration that doesn't follow rules, laws, convention, sometimes the constitution'

The Monroe Doctrine has been renamed the 'Donroad Doctrine' and stipulates the U.S. can 'dominate our hemisphere economically and militarily, including regime change'

Bond Market as Trump's Primary Constraint

Myers identifies the 10-year Treasury yield as the key guardrail: 'When the 10-year goes to four and a half, they get nervous. At five, they will course correct on almost anything'

The Supreme Court's AIPA tariff ruling against Trump demonstrates judicial guardrails are functioning on key issues

Democrats are 'very likely to take the House' in midterms, potentially creating another institutional check on presidential power

Iran Diplomacy Heading Toward April Military Strike

Geneva talks yesterday produced agreement to continue negotiations next week, but Myers sees 'no great breakthrough, no major moment'

Trump 'always wants to negotiate first' and seeks a new nuclear deal requiring Iran to agree to 'no enrichment and a much more limited ballistic missile program'

If diplomacy fails after Trump-Xi meeting in early April, expect 'two weeks of shock and awe' including 'a wave of assassinations, including the religious leadership'

Oil markets are 'trading the situation in Iran correctly' with elevated geopolitical risk premium, but major strike could spike prices 'higher than people expect'

Venezuelan Oil Central to Energy Price Strategy

Trump administration explicitly states Venezuelan intervention 'was about oil' rather than democracy or human rights justifications

Energy policy aims to bring oil prices to 'low 50s later this year' through increased Venezuelan production, Iran nuclear deal, and Ukraine ceasefire

Myers is leading first foreign business delegation to Venezuela in March with 55 clients attending conference in Caracas

OpenAI Valuation Disconnect from Reality

Myers calls OpenAI's math 'science fiction' and predicts they 'will not be able to deliver on sales estimates to justify the valuation'

Recent $110 billion raise came from 'three existing shareholders that have the most to lose' at lower $730 billion valuation versus hoped-for $850 billion

Government will likely backstop OpenAI within 'six to nine months' due to collateral damage to Amazon, Microsoft, Oracle, and data center ecosystem

Crypto Lacks Fundamental Trading Drivers

Myers argues Bitcoin 'does not trade on fundamentals' and 'is not a risk hedge, inflation hedge, store of value, or medium of exchange'

Stablecoins have brighter prospects - the Genius Act was 'absolutely brilliant' for ensuring dollar-pegged liquidity and supporting reserve currency status

Until 'a majority of Americans can use Bitcoin to seamlessly buy something they need every single day, it will continue to trade as a very speculative asset'