Joe Wiesenthal and Tracy Alloway host Ozan Tarman, Vice Chair of Global Macro at Deutsche Bank, recorded March 25, 2026 at 9:10 AM before market open. Tarman travels globally conducting macro dinners with institutional investors, providing unique insights into positioning and sentiment.

The conversation covers the Iran conflict's market impact, with headlines driving volatile trading conditions. Despite geopolitical tensions, oil prices remain below crisis levels while rate markets have dramatically repriced, abandoning cut expectations for hike scenarios.

Discussion extends to private credit stress, positioning squeezes, and the disconnect between physical and financial oil markets. Tarman shares client sentiment from his recent macro dinner tour across major financial centers.

Iran Headlines Drive Volatile Market Conditions

Fars News Agency reported Iran has 'no interest in talks' and called US ceasefire position 'illogical,' causing oil futures to decline despite ongoing conflict

Trump claimed yesterday that 'Iranians had sent him a prize that was extremely valuable,' creating skepticism about headline credibility - Joe

Markets remain headline-driven because 'no one's entirely sure what the goals are when it comes to Iran' - Tracy

Positioning favors equity rally and oil decline continuation, though 'there are many wounded hurt players out there, certainly in rates markets' - Ozan

Oil Markets Show Physical-Financial Disconnect

Brent crude trades below $100 despite Strait of Hormuz threats, well off March 2022 highs of $139 during peak inflation

Commodity trader warns 'if Hormuz doesn't open in one month, the world has a huge problem' due to Asian refinery shutdowns and pipeline constraints - Ozan

Physical oil markets show severe supply stress while paper markets remain relatively calm, creating dangerous pricing disconnect

Fuel surcharges already appearing across Asian airlines and Australian car services, indicating real-world supply impact

Rate Markets Reprice for Warflation Scenario

ECB and Bank of England now price 3-4 rate hikes after previously expecting cuts, representing massive positioning shift

Before Iran conflict, US 10-year closed at 3.93% with clients calling bonds 'the new gold' amid AI job displacement fears - Ozan

Warflation expectations drive bear steepener trades as markets abandon bull flattener positioning from February

Lagarde sounded calm but said ECB 'will be watching this,' indicating central bank vigilance on inflation risks

Private Credit Faces Liquidity Stress

Ares and Apollo curbing withdrawals from private credit funds, with industry claiming 'it's not systemic, it's not 2008' - Ozan

Headlines about redemption requests being hidden behind Iran coverage, would dominate US financial news otherwise

If investors cannot access private credit funds, they may sell liquid assets including public credit and equities

Concern that stress could spread to US banks lending to these funds and impact insurance companies' portfolios

Positioning Squeeze Hits Gold and Dollar Trades

Gold suffered 10-day selloff after reaching $5,500, as investors liquidate winners to raise cash amid widespread positioning stress

Dollar strength toward 110-111 level represents 'pain trade' as markets abandon dedollarization thesis amid safe haven demand

Emerging markets and petrodollar countries selling gold reserves 'to build defense mechanisms' during conflict - Ozan

Client sentiment before Iran attack focused on AI destroying '50% of white collar jobs in 12-18 months,' completely different from current warflation fears