Joe Wiesenthal and Tracy Alloway speak with James Bosworth, founder of Hexagon and author of the Latin America Risk Report newsletter, about the dramatic shifts in Latin American politics following Trump's Venezuela operation.

The conversation covers the 'Orange Shift' of right-wing leaders aligning with Trump, from Delcy Rodriguez in Venezuela to Bukele in El Salvador, Milei in Argentina, and the ongoing popularity of Lula in Brazil.

Bosworth analyzes how Trump's focus on the Western Hemisphere represents a novel approach to US-Latin America relations, operating through personal relationships rather than institutional doctrine, with major implications for regional stability and economic development.

Venezuela's Colonial-Style Oil Arrangement Under Delcy Rodriguez

Delcy Rodriguez has cut an unprecedented deal with Trump where 'Venezuelan oil is sold via US companies and routed via US government bank accounts, and then the US government sends a monthly payment to Delcy Rodriguez' - a arrangement Boz calls 'a callback to colonialism'

Rodriguez was 'one of the five most powerful leaders in Venezuela for the decade prior to Maduro's removal' and 'always been willing to cut a deal with anybody' - positioning her as a pragmatic successor

The Venezuelan operation succeeded because 'nobody liked Nicholas Maduro' after he 'had stolen the election in 2018' and 'had generally burned the entire left in terms of their support for him over time'

Brazil's Economic Success Defies Market Pessimism About Lula

Brazil's misery index is 'basically at the lowest in over twenty years' with 'inflation is reasonable, employment is up, and they just had their most secure year in ten years in terms of public security'

'Every time Lula has been elected, markets have panicked' but 'if you had put an investment down on the day Lula was inaugurated in any of his three terms so far, you made money'

Trump administration is 'targeting Brazil's financial sector' with 'a Section 301 investigation on Pix, which is one of the most innovative financial transfer systems in the world that Brazil's Central Bank runs, and 93% of Brazilians use'

Bukele's Security Success Fails to Attract Investment

Bukele 'cut a deal with the MS-13 to reduce the amount of violence' and 'implemented a mano dura policy' leading to 'arrest of 2% of the adult population'

'There are places in San Salvador that you can walk that you could not have walked ten years ago' but 'investment's not flowing' despite security improvements

'If a leader can arrest 2% of their adult population, they also don't have to follow the contracts that they sign. And private businesses just don't trust Bukele' - Boz

Argentina's Inflation Progress Masks Deeper Structural Issues

Under Milei, 'inflation was 200% and now inflation is down to 30 to 35%' though Boz notes '35% inflation is insane' and means 'you have no reason to save money'

Milei's popularity 'is below 35%' and 'as soon as people think the Peronists might come back to power, it's not going to go well for Argentina's economy'

'Argentina needs a sustainable economic agenda that crosses political parties' rather than the current 'boom bust cycle' driven by political polarization

Trump's Person-to-Person Diplomacy Creates Policy Uncertainty

'I've never seen a US administration function in a way where I'm doing the individual level of analysis, where I'm having to pick through what does Pete Hegseth think? What does Marco Rubio think?' - Boz

'It's a person to person relationship, not a state to state relationship' meaning 'when the next president comes to power...it doesn't really tell you what direction Trump would go in'

The 'Orange Shift' of Trump-aligned leaders 'has a drop dead date. It ends in January 2029, when Trump leaves office, and it's not clear what replaces it'

China's Commodity-Focused Trade Limits Latin American Development

'China is the number one trade partner for most of Latin America' but 'China buys Latin American commodities...and they push back cheap goods that undermine any effort by Latin America to move up the value chain'

'China is just speed running all of the errors that Spain and the United States made, but in a much shorter timeframe across a few decades in the 2000s'

Chinese infrastructure investment has produced 'failures in terms of the dam that they built in Ecuador is full of cracks' and 'they bring their own people in, so it doesn't necessarily provide as many jobs'