Mark Filipino hosts this FT News briefing covering Middle East ceasefire tensions, oil market volatility, and Pakistan's diplomatic mediation efforts. Key contributors include Jamie Smith, FT's US Energy Editor discussing oil market reactions, and Hamza Jalani reporting from Islamabad on Pakistan's role as mediator between the US and Iran.

The episode examines how Iran's ceasefire threats are reshaping global energy flows, with Asian countries scrambling for alternative oil supplies from the US. Federal Reserve policymakers debate monetary policy responses to potential economic fallout, while Pakistan leverages its unique position to broker peace talks in hopes of regional stability and improved US relations.

Iran Ceasefire Threats Shake Oil Markets

Iran threatened to withdraw from ceasefire with the US due to Israeli attacks in Lebanon that killed hundreds, halting tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.

Despite regional tensions, Brent crude fell 17-18% below $100 after Tuesday's ceasefire announcement as traders viewed it as de-escalation.

Uncertainty remains over Strait of Hormuz status, with potential tolling arrangement requiring ships to pay up to $2 million per passage.

Record US Oil Export Surge to Asia

68 empty tankers are heading to the US to collect crude for Asia - more than double the typical amount according to Kepler research.

US exports could rise 30% in a single month to 5 million barrels daily, sourced from Strategic Petroleum Reserve's 40 million barrel release and Venezuelan crude imports.

"Asia is definitely one of the most vulnerable parts of the world to oil and fuel shortages because 80% of oil and oil products were actually passing through the strait" - Jamie Smith.

Export surge likely temporary as US shale sector lacks capacity to ramp production without sustained high prices and fewer good drilling prospects.

Fed Split on Rate Response to Middle East Crisis

Federal Reserve March meeting minutes revealed policymaker disagreement over whether to raise or cut rates in response to Middle East conflict.

Most Fed policymakers believe a drawn-out war will require rate cuts to support jobs market, while many think rate rises necessary to combat rising prices.

Pakistan's High-Stakes Diplomatic Gambit

Pakistan served as mediator between US and Iran for weeks, with Field Marshal Asim Munir becoming close ally of President Trump who calls him 'his favorite field marshal'.

"Pakistan sees this as an opportunity to show the world that it's a useful country that can play a responsible role in the region, that it can impress the United States" - Hamza Jalani.

Pakistan faces economic vulnerability as import-dependent country that could face balance of payment crisis if fuel prices increase considerably.

Risk of being dragged into conflict through mutual defense pact with Saudi Arabia, potentially pitting Pakistan alongside unpopular US and Israel against popular Iran.

NHS Doubles Down on Controversial Palantir Partnership

NHS England data chief Ming Tong wants to embed Palantir technology deeper into hospitals despite internal staff refusing to work on the platform.

Controversy stems from Palantir's role in US defense and immigration enforcement, with government ministers considering break clause to eject company from NHS systems.

Tong told colleagues Palantir's software delivers 'outstanding results like speeding up surgery and getting patients home quicker'.

Resources Mentioned

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