The episode features Singapore's Prime Minister discussing the country's navigation of a shifting global order. As leader of perhaps the world's most globalized nation, he addresses how Singapore is adapting to what he describes as a post-American multipolar world.

The conversation covers Singapore's economic resilience amid global tariff disruptions, the country's role as a logistics hub caught between US-China tensions, and its strategy of working with like-minded countries to preserve multilateral frameworks.

The Prime Minister discusses ASEAN's potential as a credible political and economic bloc, Singapore's investment strategy amid US policy unpredictability, and opportunities for closer EU partnerships in the new global environment.

The discussion concludes with reflections on domestic challenges, including managing youth anxiety in an unstable world and the personal difficulties of political leadership, particularly the painful process of party renewal ahead of elections.

Navigating the Post-American Multipolar World

"We are certainly in the midst of a great transition to a multipolar world, a post-American order" with America stepping back from its role as global insurer but no other country able or willing to fill the vacuum - Prime Minister.

"The old rules do not apply anymore but the new ones have not been written and we must brace ourselves for more turbulence ahead" - Prime Minister on the current international environment.

Singapore believes changes in America reflect "broader change in political culture and also in American society itself" - a feeling that America has not benefited from the current global order and is not prepared to do as much heavy lifting.

This sentiment goes beyond the current administration

Some of Trump's criticism may be justified regarding free riders

The positive result is countries taking more responsibility for their own security

"We cannot afford to just wait for things to happen or hope somehow that things magically will fall in place. We have to take actions now" - Prime Minister on Singapore's proactive approach.

Focus on investing in global commons

Building new trade connections

Keeping momentum of trade liberalization with like-minded countries

"Multipolarity itself does not provide a stable framework for countries to work together to cooperate and to ensure shared prosperity and security" - Prime Minister warning against assuming stability.

ASEAN's Role and Regional Integration

Southeast Asia used to be called "the Balkans of Asia" due to geographical fragmentation and potential for instability, yet has maintained relative peace since the Vietnam War, largely credited to ASEAN.

"ASEAN is certainly not perfect, but it is indispensable" - Prime Minister defending the organization's achievements in a highly diverse region of different ethnicities, languages, and religions.

Plans are underway to accelerate ASEAN integration to create a more attractive and competitive single market, with US tariffs catalyzing ASEAN leaders to come together with more urgency.

"We would prefer a world where ASEAN in Southeast Asia we are platform that allows for open and inclusive engagements with all the major powers" - Prime Minister on avoiding exclusionary blocks.

America remains the largest investor in Southeast Asia, not China, though China is the largest trading partner. All Southeast Asian countries want to maintain good links with America despite tariff impacts.

Tariffs, Trade, and Economic Impact

Singapore received 10% tariffs from the US, which the Prime Minister notes is now considered relief: "We started with nothing... from our point of view the correct figure is 0%. But 10% has become the new normal."

Many Southeast Asian neighbors landed on tariffs around 19% after extensive negotiations, with the US not having a trade deficit with Singapore but significant deficits with neighbors.

Singapore still faces potential semiconductor and pharmaceutical tariffs. Large American pharmaceutical companies in Singapore have negotiated their own exemptions by investing back in America.

Global trade flows continue but are being reconfigured into new patterns. "So long as they are continuing especially in Asia, Singapore can remain a relevant node" - Prime Minister.

Singapore is starting to feel economic slowdown in the second half of the year as businesses hold back on new investments and hiring due to uncertainty. "The Singapore economy is like the canary in the coal mine because we are so open and so exposed."

No slowdown felt in first half of the year

General slowdown in business activities now emerging

Economic growth hasn't suffered as much as expected due to three factors: actual tariff rollout lower than initially indicated, frontloading of activities dampening impact, and economy resilience from AI and new technologies.

US-China Relations and Strategic Competition

"It's the most consequential relationship in the world and it's also the most dangerous fault line in international relations" - Prime Minister on US-China relations.

Both countries are looking at potential choke points to use as leverage, but "when one economy squeezes, the other squeezes back right away. So you end up in a path in a dynamic of mutually assured destruction."

When one side weaponizes a dependency, it motivates the other to find alternatives. US chip controls drive China toward technological self-reliance and lower-end chip workarounds; China's rare earth controls will drive US and allies to find alternatives.

"We should never underestimate the elasticity of supply" - Prime Minister on long-term economic adjustments, suggesting America and China may come to a new modus vivendi to coexist while competing intensively.

Chinese view the relationship as a whole and cannot compartmentalize it, whereas the US prefers compartmentalization. Singapore hopes for at least "some form of a guard rail to manage the economic relationship in trade."

US economic nationalism and America First strategy may paradoxically be leading to a China First strategy, giving China impetus to become more independent and potentially stronger.

China's Rise and Global Role

"The world must realize that China will not converge with western norms and it will find its own path to modernity" - Prime Minister on accepting China's different developmental model.

China's per capita GDP is just one-fifth of America's, indicating tremendous catch-up growth potential, but in some areas it has gone beyond catch-up as a technological leader in advanced manufacturing and renewable energy.

"China is not just a rising power. It is a risen power" - Prime Minister on recognizing China's current status and growing weight in the global system.

China recently decided to forgo its special and differential treatment provisions in the WTO and has doubled down on support for global institutions, demonstrating recognition of its responsibilities as a potential global leader.

China today is still not able or willing to replace America's role in the global system, remaining a middle-income country with domestic challenges, leaving no new global leader emerging.

This messy transition period without clear global leadership "can continue for years maybe more than a decade" - Prime Minister on the extended timeline of global reordering.

Export Controls and Business Integrity

Singapore faces pressure to stop US advanced chips from reaching China. "We've established a business hub on the basis of our reputation for rule of law and trust" - Prime Minister on maintaining integrity.

"We will not tolerate businesses violating our laws. We'll take strict actions" - Prime Minister on enforcement approach.

Singapore will not condone businesses or individuals using their association with Singapore to circumvent export controls of other countries.

Singapore has put in place robust arrangements allowing the US government to investigate companies of interest in Singapore, with similar arrangements offered to other countries for their export controls.

Multilateral Frameworks and New Partnerships

Singapore is working to reinforce existing institutions like the WTO, where "the consensus decision-making process, which is a treasured principle, has become a recipe for paralysis."

Need to find ways for plurilaterals to take off in the WTO

Some countries should start moving to keep momentum going

Hope America will join later even if not willing now

The Future of Investment and Trade Partnership brings together 15 small and medium trade-dependent economies, including Singapore and UAE, that already have virtually tariff-free trade among themselves.

Focus is not on creating another FTA but on new initiatives

Goals include facilitating investments and standardizing rules, regulations, customs documentation

Using technology as enabler with electronic invoicing, documentation, data flows

New initiatives could eventually be multilateralized as part of WTO precepts

Partnership between CPTPP and EU could account for 40% of global trade, representing new opportunities to reinvigorate trade and "create new arteries."

EU has already signed or moved on FTAs with Singapore and several ASEAN member countries. An EU-ASEAN FTA discussion would represent another one-third of global trade.

"Europe will be also a key player in this multipolar environment. Europe is a major power in its own right" - Prime Minister on viewing Europe as essential partner.

Investment Strategy and US Exposure

Singapore is not scaling back US investments despite attacks on Federal Reserve and policy unpredictability because "we still see a lot of leading edge technologies tremendous dynamism in American enterprises."

Investment decisions consider both macro risk environments and individual company dynamism and growth prospects. While risk premiums at macro level may have increased in America, company-level opportunities remain strong.

Singapore continues looking for opportunities around the world in Europe, Asia, and other regions, not limiting focus to America alone.

Domestic Challenges and Youth Anxiety

Growing anxiety exists among young people everywhere: China talks about "lying flat," Japan has "hikikomori" (staying home not going out), America and Europe discuss "the great resignation."

"We are in a different environment less stable more chaotic more disorderly. So naturally young people are more concerned about their future" - Prime Minister on global youth sentiment.

Singapore's domestic political focus must be "to find ways to give assurance to our young to give them that confidence that they can chart a better future for themselves."

The hardest thing as Prime Minister has been managing party renewal: "I have to drop you. That was very painful" - describing conversations with team members who couldn't continue.

One key to PAP success has been full focus on renewing the team every election

Easy to continue with status quo to avoid offending anyone

But doing less renewal means paying the price 5, 10, 20 years from now

Had to speak to each member individually

Had a good election outcome after the difficult decisions

Prime Minister has not yet met with Trump in person but had a phone call that "went well" late last year, with potential meeting opportunity when Trump comes to ASEAN summits.