This FT News Briefing from March 17th covers major geopolitical and economic developments. Host Sonia Hudson speaks with Gideon Rockman, the FT's chief foreign affairs commentator, about NATO allies rejecting US calls for naval intervention in the Strait of Hormuz after Iran's attacks on shipping.

The episode also features Ed White, the FT's China correspondent, discussing China's strategic oil stockpiles and their capacity to weather Middle East supply disruptions. Additional coverage includes Unicredit's aggressive takeover bid for Commerce Bank and the discovery of an inhospitable new planet.

NATO Allies Reject US Naval Mission in Strait of Hormuz

UK, France, and Germany rejected Trump's demands for naval intervention after Iran effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz by attacking ships, blocking 20% of world oil exports.

"Had Trump behaved in a more conventional way towards European and Asian allies over the past year. Had he not slapped them with tariffs, insulted them at various points, threatened to invade Greenland, etc., etc., would they be more cooperative now? I think they might be" - Gideon.

European allies view the mission as "extremely hazardous" that "might go on for months" and "wouldn't be guaranteed a success, but would almost certainly lead to casualties."

India appears to have struck bilateral diplomacy with Iran to allow India-bound ships through the strait, though Europeans unlikely to follow suit due to US opposition.

Limited US Options for Reopening Critical Shipping Route

US hopes continued bombing will "eventually take out the missiles and launchers" but Iran has other options and only needs to attack a few ships to deter shipping.

Trump declaring victory and walking away might not solve the conflict as "Iranians are now incentivized to show that they can inflict real damage on the West."

Former British ambassador to Iran Sir Simon Gass believes Iranians "would keep firing for a couple of days, but would actually be pretty grateful because they're taking a terrible battering."

Diplomatic solutions face credibility issues since "this war started in the middle of diplomatic negotiations" and Iran has "every reason now not to trust the United States or Israel."

China's Strategic Oil Stockpile Faces Middle East Test

China imports one-third of its oil supplies and 25% of gas from the Middle East through the Strait of Hormuz, making it the "world's biggest single oil importer."

China's oil stockpile estimated between 1.1-1.4 billion barrels, providing "110 to 120 days of cover for all of China's oil imports" - about three months.

US Strategic Reserve holds "just over 400 million barrels before the strikes on Iran" - less than half of China's estimated reserves.

China keeps stockpile sizes as "closely guarded national secret" with experts using budget documents, trade data, and satellite imagery for estimates.

China's finance ministry "increased the budget again for stockpiling resources" and will pursue "closer ties with Russia around expanding oil and gas flows."

Unicredit Launches €35 Billion Commerce Bank Takeover

Italian lender Unicredit launched €35 billion takeover offer for Germany's Commerce Bank despite "fierce opposition from the German government and Commerce Bank's board."

Unicredit CEO "doesn't expect to gain control of Commerce Bank" but the move enables buying shares in open market after "a year of no progress on a deal."

The takeover would add to Unicredit's existing 29% holding in Commerce Bank.