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European investment banks’ killer year

This FT News briefing covers major developments across politics, finance, and global migration. Host Mark Filipino discusses Trump's State of the Union address, European banking performance, and Afghanistan's refugee crisis.

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Key Takeaways
  1. 01

    European investment banks saw trading revenues jump over 10% year-on-year, reaching their highest levels in at least a decade

  2. 02

    UK self-driving startup Wave raised $1.2 billion from Mercedes-Benz, Stellantis, and Nissan for London robo-taxi launch

  3. 03

    Afghanistan's population increased 12% in two years as 5 million refugees returned from Pakistan and Iran

  4. 04

    Trump announced rate payer protection pledge requiring tech companies to build their own power plants for AI data centers

  5. 05

    Afghanistan's GDP rose 4% but per capita income declined due to massive population influx outpacing economic growth

  6. 06

    Banking volatility from Trump's tariffs and AI boom created ideal trading conditions but increased systemic risks

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This FT News briefing covers major developments across politics, finance, and global migration. Host Mark Filipino discusses Trump's State of the Union address, European banking performance, and Afghanistan's refugee crisis.

The episode features insights from FT correspondents Simon Foy on European banking and Hamza Jalani reporting from Afghanistan. Key topics include investment bank trading revenues, self-driving car funding, and the economic impact of mass refugee returns.

Trump's State of the Union Highlights Tariffs and AI Concerns

Trump expressed confidence that trade deals will survive despite Supreme Court ruling tariffs illegal last week, stating 'almost all countries and corporations want to keep the deal that they already made' - Trump

President announced rate payer protection pledge requiring major tech companies to 'build their own power plants as part of their factory so that no one's prices will go up' - Trump

Trump warned Iran about nuclear program negotiations, threatening U.S. strikes unless the regime agrees to curb nuclear ambitions

European Banks Capitalize on Market Volatility

Barclays, UBS, Deutsche Bank, Société Générale, and BNP Paribas delivered trading revenues over 10% higher year-on-year, surpassing even 2022's exceptional performance during Ukraine invasion

Market volatility from Trump's return and AI bull run created ideal trading conditions as 'client activity is higher as hedge funds look to exploit market dislocations' - Simon Foy

Senior investment banker warned that markets looked 'increasingly frothy' with AI investments, comparing banker attitudes to years preceding 2008 financial crisis

Consensus expects 2026 will be weaker for trading desks as volatility moderates, though unexpected events like tariffs could trigger new market dislocations

Wave Raises $1.2 Billion for London Robo-Taxi Launch

UK self-driving startup Wave secured funding from Mercedes-Benz, Stellantis, and Nissan, making it one of the UK's most valuable AI startups

Company plans first robo-taxi service in London later this year, competing against Waymo which has valuation 14 times larger than Wave's

Afghanistan Struggles with Massive Refugee Return

Pakistan and Iran expelled millions of Afghan refugees over past year, with Iran deporting hundreds of thousands after accusing Afghans of espionage following 12-day war with Israel

Afghanistan's population increased 12% in two years with 5 million returnees, but GDP only rose 4%, meaning 'people are becoming poorer because the pie is simply not big enough' - Hamza Jalani

Taliban's restrictions on women limit economic contribution despite returnees bringing higher education levels and skills from Pakistan and Iran

Country lost access to at least $1 billion annually in USAID funding, representing one-third of total aid that forms majority of government budget

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