This episode features Cedaris, Head of Research at Delphi Research, hosting alongside Jason, Head of Markets at Jan Ventures and their perpetuals expert. The conversation takes place on January 21st with Bitcoin trading near $90K after recent volatility.

The discussion covers Bitcoin's evolving nature as an independent asset class, Michael Saylor's recent $2 billion purchase at poor timing, and the current state of perpetual DEX platforms including Hyperliquid and Lighter. They analyze market maker dynamics, upcoming traditional finance integration with 24/7 equity trading, and the resurgence of privacy coin narratives.

The hosts examine market cycle positioning using structural frameworks, suggesting crypto may be entering a bottoming phase before the next bull run, while evaluating various altcoin opportunities and trading strategies for Q1 2025.

Bitcoin's Identity Crisis and Saylor's Mistimed Entry

"Bitcoin is really its own thing" making it attractive for investors but "really tough" for traders who can't predict reactions to headlines - Cedaris

Michael Saylor deployed $2 billion at Bitcoin's recent peak around $95-96K through ATM equity sales, maintaining over 1.0 MNAV despite poor execution timing

MicroStrategy has deployed "almost three and a half billion this year alone" with the company no longer disclosing average purchase prices in announcements

Quantum computing headlines created selling pressure among pension funds and institutional buyers, though the actual threat remains unclear

Hyperliquid's Whale Unlock Pressure Creates Opportunity

"The lower hyperliquid goes, the more and more I get really interested in it" with the platform generating conservatively $750 million annually - Jason

Large whales including the "tornado cash whale" are unstaking positions, creating selling pressure but potentially healthy distribution for long-term price action

The platform's revenue and volume reflexivity is "cyclical" and "quite normal" across exchange tokens, with current distribution being "quite bullish for longer term price action"

Lighter's Fee Increases Risk Liquidity Exodus

Lighter increased market maker fees and now requires token staking, which Jason believes "could pull liquidity on their platform and widen spreads"

"You should probably keep MarketMaker fees as low as possible for as long as possible" to maintain liquidity while shipping differentiated products - Jason

The team lacks transparency on tokenomics and buyback allocation, making it "really hard" for analysts and PMs to model the asset compared to Hyperliquid's clear 97% revenue-to-buyback structure

Upcoming products include sidecar EVM in "a few weeks," unified margin, options trading, and net interest margin on deposits

NYSE 24/7 Trading Will Boost Perp DEX Liquidity

The NYSE's planned 24/7 equity trading launch in 2026 will be "massively beneficial for a lot of these perp dexes" by improving liquidity and reducing costs

Current equity perps suffer from "horrible after-hours and weekend trading" with funding getting "out of whack" due to limited pricing sources

On-chain equity assets will help market makers hedge positions without off-chain complications, potentially reducing funding rates and increasing liquidity

Robinhood speculation continues around providing front-end access, though "ultimately they're competitors at some point" with perp DEXes

Privacy Coin Renaissance Led by Criminal Activity

Monero surged from $450 to $750 between January 10th-14th after a $282 million hack victim converted stolen Bitcoin and Litecoin to Monero for privacy

"Monero is really like a pure privacy player" associated with "nefarious criminal activity" while Zcash positions itself around "freedom angle and individual liberty" - Cedaris

Institutional adoption favors Zcash over Monero due to regulatory concerns, with Zcash also serving as a potential "Bitcoin hedge" against quantum computing threats

"Privacy is clearly a narrative for this year and it will be moving forward" with both coins likely benefiting if either wins the privacy narrative

Market Cycle Analysis Points to Bottoming Phase

Using Jason Chow's structural framework, crypto appears to be in "phase five" - the lull where "bad news is no longer nuking markets" and "good news is also no longer nuking markets"

The 1010 event marked "wealth destruction" and "price-based capitulation," followed by "time-based capitulation" through sideways chopping action

Bitcoin showed relative strength yesterday, down only 2% versus NASDAQ's 2% decline and NVIDIA's 4% drop, marking "the first time in four months" crypto outperformed equities

"For the first time in months, I've actually started to deploy some capital on buying reflexive assets" as markets appear to be bottoming - Jason

Resources Mentioned

Passage at Delphi A Mythic Time-Travel Thriller (Apollo Series Book 1)

gesting potential bottoming before the next bull cycle phase This episode features Cedaris, Head of Research at Delphi Research, hosting alongside Jason, Head of Markets at Jan Ventures and their perp

Following Your Call to Ministry Recognizing and Responding to God's Call

it turns out like the reason. I think that so we kind of talked about this internally on like the research call. Like Monero versus Zcash is really interesting to me. I think that Monero is really