Jason Calacanis hosts the podcast with guest Brad Gerstner, founder of Altimeter Capital, filling in for David Friedberg. Brad recently received a shout-out from President Trump at the State of the Union for his work on Trump accounts, a program signing up over 100,000 kids daily for investment accounts launching July 4th.

The conversation covers the economic impacts of the Iran conflict, with oil prices spiking from $84 to $119 per barrel and back down, creating market volatility and inflation concerns. Goldman Sachs updated forecasts show significant economic headwinds from sustained conflict.

A major focus centers on AI revenue growth at Anthropic and OpenAI, both showing unprecedented scaling with Anthropic hitting $14 billion run rate and OpenAI at $20 billion. The discussion explores whether this revenue represents genuine production usage or experimental spending.

The episode concludes with analysis of Washington State's new millionaire tax and Howard Schultz's immediate relocation to Miami, reflecting broader concerns about wealth migration and the sustainability of state-level tax policies targeting high earners.

Iran Conflict Creates Oil Market Volatility and Economic Uncertainty

Brent crude oil spiked from $84 to $119 and back to $99, with Iran closing the Strait of Hormuz as leverage against enemies

Goldman Sachs raised PCE inflation forecast from 2.1% to 2.9% and lowered GDP forecast by 30 basis points due to oil price impacts

Polymarket shows 27% chance of U.S. forces entering Iran by March end, 57% by year-end, indicating market expectations of escalation

"The war would be over very soon" - Trump's comment caused oil to drop from $120 to $90 almost instantly, showing market belief in quick resolution

AI Revenue Explosion Raises Questions About Sustainability

Anthropic achieved $14 billion run rate in 14 months, growing 12x year over year, with a record $6 billion revenue month in February

OpenAI reached $20 billion annualized run rate, growing from $2 billion to $20 billion in 24 months, valued at $840 billion

"$6 billion in a month. That's more revenue than the annual revenue of Databricks and Snowflake after 12 years" - Brad on Anthropic's February performance

Chamath argues most enterprise AI spending remains experimental: "There's not a single good example of sustained, positive margin expansion and impact of AI inside of a true corporate enterprise"

Brad counters that models now compete with labor budgets, not IT budgets: "They're no longer competing with IT budgets. They're now augmenting labor"

Data Center Opposition Threatens AI Infrastructure Development

40% of protested data centers get canceled, with 25 data centers (5 gigawatts) canceled in 2025, representing $50 billion in lost annual revenue

2026 projections show 7 gigawatts at risk of cancellation, adding another $70 billion in potential lost revenue annually

EA-funded think tanks with "literally billions of dollars" spread FUD about data centers, influencing public discourse against AI development

Texas shows zero cancellations due to local opposition with over 150 gigawatts of data capacity requests, contrasting with Virginia and Indiana

Millionaire Tax Exodus Accelerates Wealth Migration

Washington State passed 9.9% millionaire tax affecting 30,000 households, expected to raise $4 billion for schools and healthcare starting 2029

Howard Schultz relocated to Miami the same day the tax passed, following Jeff Bezos who left in November 2023

California's proposed billionaire tax shows 71% probability of negative NPV in Monte Carlo simulations, creating an expected $25 billion budget hole

Bernie Sanders and Ro Khanna proposed federal wealth tax of 5% annually: "In roughly 20 years, the federal government's just going to take all of your money" - Sacks