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Peter Schiff: Gold vs Bitcoin, Market Crashes, US Dollar Crisis and More | TG Podcast

The episode features Peter Schiff, economist, gold advocate, and CEO of Euro Pacific Capital and Shift Gold, in conversation with Michael (Thread Guy), a crypto-focused content creator. Schiff is known for accurately predicting the 2008 financial crisis and his longstanding skepticism of Bitcoin.

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Key Takeaways
  1. 01

    "Gold went from $35 in the late 60s to $850 by 1980. All prices went way up. Oil prices were $3 a barrel, went to 40. But it wasn't really that oil went up, it was that the dollar went down" - Peter

  2. 02

    Peter predicts an impending sovereign debt crisis where "the world is losing confidence in the US government's ability to pay back its sovereign debt" - making 2008 "look like a Sunday school picnic"

  3. 03

    "We can't fight inflation anymore because we die from the cure. We can't raise interest rates. So all we end up doing is dying by inflation" - Peter on why raising rates to 20% like Volcker did is impossible with $38 trillion in debt

  4. 04

    Gold has doubled in two years to $4,000, with Peter noting "central banks have been quietly divesting of dollars and replacing dollars with gold" as the world moves off the dollar standard

  5. 05

    "Bitcoin doesn't actually have any intrinsic value. Nobody can do anything with a Bitcoin. You can't make anything out of it" - Peter argues Bitcoin lacks gold's fundamental utility as the "most useful metal on the periodic table"

  6. 06

    Peter revealed he's launching a tokenized gold platform on Shift Gold, acknowledging "the one thing that makes sense to put on a blockchain is gold" - inadvertently endorsing DeFi and real-world asset tokenization

  7. 07

    "I probably never posed for so many selfies" at the Bitcoin conference, with attendees telling him "you're the reason I own Bitcoin" because his economic teachings led them to crypto - Peter

  8. 08

    In 1980, one-third of national debt matured long-term versus today where "one-third of the national debt matures in one year" - making interest rate hikes catastrophic for the budget

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The episode features Peter Schiff, economist, gold advocate, and CEO of Euro Pacific Capital and Shift Gold, in conversation with Michael (Thread Guy), a crypto-focused content creator. Schiff is known for accurately predicting the 2008 financial crisis and his longstanding skepticism of Bitcoin.

The conversation covers Schiff's prediction of an impending sovereign debt crisis that will dwarf 2008, his views on why gold has reached $4,000 and is headed higher, and his critique of Bitcoin's lack of intrinsic value compared to gold's fundamental utility.

Schiff discusses the historical context of the 1970s dollar devaluation when Nixon ended gold convertibility, drawing parallels to today's global monetary reset as central banks quietly shift from dollars to gold reserves.

The discussion takes an unexpected turn when Schiff reveals plans to launch a tokenized gold platform, leading to a debate about blockchain technology, DeFi applications, and real-world asset tokenization - finding common ground between the gold advocate and crypto enthusiast.

Why Bitcoin Can't Replace Gold's Intrinsic Value

"Bitcoin doesn't actually have any intrinsic value. Nobody can do anything with a Bitcoin. You can't make anything out of it. You can give it to somebody else, but they can't do anything with it either" - Peter

Peter argues Bitcoin copied gold's monetary properties (fungibility, durability, divisibility, portability) but lacks the fundamental value that made those properties useful. "If gold didn't have any value, the fact that you could divide it wouldn't matter. You'd be dividing nothing" - Peter

Gold is "the most useful metal on the periodic table" with applications in jewelry, consumer electronics, aerospace, medicine, and dentistry. "The only reason that gold isn't used a lot more frequently is because it's so expensive. And it's very expensive because it's very scarce" - Peter

"Gold can be a store of value because gold, unlike a lot of other commodities, doesn't decay. If you had a ship that went down in the ocean 500 years ago, if you can salvage that ship and there was a treasure chest, the gold coins will look exactly the way they looked 500 years ago" - Peter

Peter acknowledges underestimating "the gullibility of the public to buy it or maybe the marketing savvy of those who were promoting it" when predicting Bitcoin would go to zero in 2017

"There's thousands or tens of thousands of these things out there. They all have very interesting properties about them, but none of them have any real value. And the fact that there's so many of them and there's no limit to how many can be created, I just don't see how there's any even scarcity" - Peter on cryptocurrencies

Gold's Best Year Since 1979 Signals Dollar Crisis

Gold is having its best performing year since 1979, reaching nearly $4,400 before correcting to $4,000 - double the price from two years ago

"We are at the early stages of a major reset of the global monetary order. That's what happened in the 1970s when Nixon took the US off the gold standard" - Peter draws parallels to today's transition

Before 1971, "the dollar was as good as gold. It was not only backed by gold but redeemable in gold." Foreign central banks held dollars as "claim checks for gold" until Nixon defaulted, telling them "you can't have the gold, you just got our paper" - Peter

The dollar lost two-thirds of its value against other currencies in the 1970s. "Gold went from $35 in the late 60s to $850 by 1980. Oil prices were $3 a barrel, went to 40. But it wasn't really that oil went up, it was that the dollar went down" - Peter

"What's been happening over the last couple years is central banks have been quietly divesting of dollars and replacing dollars with gold. The world is going back to using gold as the primary reserve asset" - Peter on the current shift

"This is a major change mainly for the United States. It means that we can't keep living beyond our means anymore. We can't keep printing money and then using it to buy stuff we didn't produce and borrow what we didn't save" - Peter

Since 1999, "the Dow Jones, despite going up fourfold in dollars, is down better than 70% in gold. And those are real dollars. So assets are losing value" - Peter on real purchasing power decline

The Coming Sovereign Debt Crisis Worse Than 2008

"The crisis that's coming is one from which there cannot be a government bailout. It's a sovereign debt crisis. It's about the world losing confidence in the US government's ability to pay back its sovereign debt" - Peter

In 2008, the Fed could substitute "dollars or treasuries for bad mortgages" because "people had confidence in Treasury bonds. They're losing confidence in them now. So if we have a dollar crisis and the dollar's tanking and inflation is exploding, what can the government do? Nothing" - Peter

Paul Volcker raised interest rates to 20% in 1980 to save the dollar when national debt was under $1 trillion and most debt was long-term. "Today we have one-third of the national debt that matures in one year. The whole average maturity on the entire $38 trillion is four or five years" - Peter

"If interest rates went up even at 10%, before too long we would be paying $4 trillion in interest on the national debt, which is impossible because we probably wouldn't even collect $4 trillion in taxes" - Peter on why the Volcker solution won't work

"We can't fight inflation anymore because we die from the cure. We can't raise interest rates. So all we end up doing is dying by inflation. And so that's where we have the risk of hyperinflation or currency crisis" - Peter

The only alternative is default: "We borrowed $40 trillion. We can't afford to pay it back so we're not going to do it. Maybe we can give everybody 25 cents on the dollar. Maybe we can afford that but we can't afford to make everybody whole" - Peter

"Once the dollar loses that [reserve currency] status, then the world's not going to sell us their stuff for our paper. We're going to have to start making stuff again, which we can't do because we don't have the factories, infrastructure, supply chains, or trained workers" - Peter

How to Prepare for Hyperinflation and Dollar Collapse

For substantial portfolios, Peter recommends "5, 10%, 20% maybe tops" in gold, with the rest in "dividend producing stocks" including gold stocks and "non-gold stocks all around the world that will deliver real inflation-adjusted returns"

For younger people with limited savings, "buy some physical gold or probably silver is probably easier for a lot of people who maybe have $5 or $10,000. Just buy some silver, buy some physical silver coins to hold value" - Peter

"Don't go grocery shopping every week for stuff. Stock up if you've got space. Buy things now that don't perish and that you're going to need in 6 months, in a year or two years. Just buy them now because they're going to be a lot more expensive in the future" - Peter

Peter warns of potential price controls: "When the dollar really starts to collapse and prices really start to rise, the government may implement price controls as a way to try to stop it from happening, just the way Nixon did"

"If they put price controls, let's say on toothpaste, well then you go to the drugstore, the supermarket, and there's no toothpaste on the shelves because they can't sell it at a price low enough to comply with the law" - Peter on shortage risks

"There might be a guy in an alley somewhere who's selling toothpaste on the black market and now it's even more expensive because the guy risks going to jail. But now how you going to buy that toothpaste? Well, maybe he'll take a silver dime" - Peter

Peter's foreign dividend payers fund is "up about 50% this year" while "the US stock market's up about a quarter of that" - demonstrating returns available outside US markets

Peter's Unexpected Blockchain Pivot: Tokenized Gold

"The one thing that makes sense to put on a blockchain is gold" - Peter acknowledges blockchain utility for real-world assets after criticizing crypto throughout the conversation

Peter is building a platform on Shift Gold where "you can buy gold on an app on your phone. We won't send you the actual gold. The gold will be stored in a vault that you own and you'll be able to transfer ownership of that gold to other people through the app" - Peter

"I'm also going to give people a debit card where if they have $5,000 worth of gold or silver and they buy something for $10, $10 worth of gold will get sold to cover the transaction. So you can use your gold as a basis of trade in commerce" - Peter

"Ideally, you won't sell the gold. You'll use the gold to make the payment because the counterparty will want to get paid in gold. You can transfer the quantity of gold instantly at very low cost, much cheaper, much quicker than you can transfer Bitcoin" - Peter

On counterparty risk criticism from Bitcoin community: "Brinks has been around for like 160 something years and they're in the business of storing gold. They have never lost an ounce in 160 years. Nobody has lost any gold who's entrusted it to Brinks" - Peter

"Capitalism is all about counterparties. If you have health insurance, auto insurance, fire insurance, it's only as good as the counterparty. Counterparties are a part of capitalism" - Peter defending centralized custody

Peter launched an NFT ordinal on Bitcoin blockchain called "Golden Triumph" - "an arm holding up a gold bar, which was in your face Bitcoin, like gold is going to triumph over Bitcoin" - selling prints with signed artwork

"I'd like it to be chain agnostic. I'd like people to be able to move the token on whatever chain they prefer. And I'd like it to be able to go across chains" - Peter on his tokenized gold platform plans

Why Peter Missed Bitcoin's Rise Despite Predicting 2008

"I still think it is eventually going to zero. What I did get wrong was underestimating the gullibility of the public to buy it or maybe the marketing savvy of those who were promoting it" - Peter on his Bitcoin prediction

"The crypto industry really helped put Trump in office for the specific purpose of pumping up Bitcoin and crypto so they would be able to cash out. A lot of people have been able to cash out a lot of profits since Trump's been elected" - Peter

Bitcoin is "off about 30% since its peak priced in gold. It got up to 126 and now it's like 108. It's in a pretty big bear market in gold" - Peter measuring Bitcoin against real money

"Being right about Bitcoin and making money in Bitcoin are two separate things. I can see the price of Bitcoin. People can buy Bitcoin and be totally wrong about its actual value and what it's going to be worth in the future, but they can make money as long as other people are also wrong" - Peter

"I've been wrong about not buying it and taking advantage of the mania. Obviously, with the benefit of hindsight, I should have done it. Had I bought Bitcoin when I first heard about it or even within a few years, I would have made more money in Bitcoin than anything I've done" - Peter admits

"I think most people are going to end up losing money in Bitcoin. Some people are going to make a lot of money. A lot of people are going to lose a lot of money, but I think more people will lose money than make money. The people who are buying it now are going to lose a lot of money" - Peter

On crypto stocks collapsing: "The Winklevoss company Gemini just came out last month, it's already down about 60% from the high. Donald Trump Media is down 70% from October. David Bailey's Nakamoto Bitcoin was $30 when it came out, it's like 70 cents" - Peter

Bitcoin Conference Irony: Peter as Crypto's Godfather

"I was probably the most popular person there. My booth was crowded and everybody was coming up to me. I probably never posed for so many selfies, not just at the venue, but just walking through the hotels" - Peter at Bitcoin conference

"The most common conversation: 'Peter, you're the reason I own Bitcoin.' People said 'You're the guy that taught me about economics. I read your stuff. I followed you. You taught me about inflation and central banks, and you taught me about gold, and then I just went from gold to Bitcoin'" - Peter

Michael Saylor "mentioned my name twice" in his talk telling people to mortgage their life and buy Bitcoin. "He didn't even mention my last name. He just called me Peter because everybody knew who he was talking about" - Peter

David Bailey told Peter: "I know you're the reason I own Bitcoin" - the Bitcoin conference organizer crediting Schiff for his own crypto involvement

"Nobody I didn't hear an unkind word from anybody out of 35,000 people there. You'd have figured one person wanted to tell me off, but no. The crypto people themselves are good people. I just think they've been misled. Other than Bitcoin, they're my kind of people" - Peter

"A lot of the people that I see promoting Bitcoin, I hear them saying all the things that I've been saying about gold, they just take it" - Peter recognizing his influence on Bitcoin's narrative

Financial Media Capture and Shadow Banning

"I'm never on CNBC in like 10 years. They stopped inviting me on because I was negative on Bitcoin" - Peter claims crypto sponsors influenced his exclusion from major financial networks

"You go to CNBC, it's all crypto. They buy all the commercial time. Half all these things are sponsored by crypto. They hardly let anybody say anything negative about Bitcoin" - Peter on media capture

"What probably happened is the Bitcoin sponsor says, 'Look, we'll give you a lot of money. Just don't let Peter Schiff come on the air because we can't have him telling the truth about Bitcoin. We're trying to get your audience to buy it'" - Peter

Peter's main YouTube channel with 600,000 subscribers has been "suppressed for years" and "labeled misinformation." Videos "never get recommended" and "almost all my videos are watched by my existing subscribers. I get very few people who are not subscribers"

On his main channel, "only 11% of people find it on search" versus his new Shift Gold channel with 30,000 subscribers where "65% of the views came from people who found it on search" - demonstrating shadowban impact

"I'm getting 100,000 views when I have 30,000 subscribers" on the unsuppressed channel "whereas on my main channel, I get 100,000 views off of 600,000 subscribers" - Peter comparing reach

"The financial media has mainly been captured by their advertisers and by their guests. They're very much pushing the mainstream narrative to the exclusion of any kind of counter perspectives. When they used to have me on, they at least allowed a contrarian view, even if they laughed at me" - Peter

Peter's Bitcoin Holdings and Lost Wallet Story

Peter holds "about a third of a Bitcoin" in a wallet he cannot access: "I have no way of accessing that wallet. I haven't had access to that wallet in years. So that doesn't really count"

Peter established a "Bitcoin strategic reserve kind of as a joke because Trump established a Bitcoin strategic reserve" with 6,000-7,000 dollars worth of donated Bitcoin and "a few hundred, 500 dollars worth of a few other altcoins, mostly Solana"

"Just like the US government, I have not used any of my own money to acquire my stockpile or strategic reserve. I invited people to donate. I have made a pledge to never actually use any of it" - Peter

Eric Voorhees and another person set up a Crypto.com wallet on Peter's phone after a Bitcoin debate, transferring $100 worth of Bitcoin. "They never gave me the seed phrase. They never gave me the password. All I had was a PIN"

"One morning I wake up and my password doesn't work. My PIN can't get in my wallet. The wallet company did some kind of refresh. Because I did a refresh, my PIN didn't work anymore. So I had to enter my password, which I didn't have" - Peter on losing access

"I contacted Eric Voorhees. I go, 'Eric, you set up this wallet. What's my password?' They don't know. I call up the company. They can't find it. I don't have the seed phrase. I don't have the wallet. I don't have anything. All I had was a PIN" - Peter

"I've never actually spent money buying any Bitcoin. All that Bitcoin got donated to me. I'm just going to hold that Bitcoin until it's worthless. Just like all the other holders. I'm going to go down with the ship" - Peter on his strategic reserve

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