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Our Final 2026 Oscar Predictions: Who Will Win, and Who Should Win

Sean Fennessey and Amanda Dobbins deliver their final predictions for all 24 categories at the 98th Academy Awards. Sean will interview Steven Spielberg at South by Southwest before returning for Oscar night, while the show will broadcast live on Netflix immediately after the ceremony.

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Key Takeaways
  1. 01

    Sean and Amanda match on 23 of 24 Oscar predictions, disagreeing only on Best Supporting Actress between Amy Madigan and Wunmi Mosaku

  2. 02

    One Battle After Another has won every major precursor award, making it the most dominant frontrunner in Oscar history

  3. 03

    If One Battle wins Picture, Director, Screenplay, Editing, and Cinematography, it would be the first film since Schindler's List to sweep those five categories

  4. 04

    Michael B. Jordan's surprise SAG win occurred during Oscar voting, potentially creating a 'vibe shift' toward Sinners

  5. 05

    The Academy added Best Casting as a new category, with Francine Maisler (Sinners) heavily favored after casting nine Best Picture nominees in seven years

  6. 06

    Golden from K-pop Demon Hunters is considered a 'super lock' to win Best Original Song, with broad appeal across age groups

  7. 07

    Steven Spielberg will be interviewed by Sean at South by Southwest, with the conversation appearing on the podcast feed

  8. 08

    The telecast will feature only two original song performances (Golden and I Lied to You) and is expected to run approximately four hours

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Sean Fennessey and Amanda Dobbins deliver their final predictions for all 24 categories at the 98th Academy Awards. Sean will interview Steven Spielberg at South by Southwest before returning for Oscar night, while the show will broadcast live on Netflix immediately after the ceremony.

The hosts discuss the new Disclosure Day trailer, revealing Josh O'Connor as an Edward Snowden-esque whistleblower exposing alien cover-ups. The film appears more grounded in real-world governmental distrust than initially expected, with clear references to Roswell and Area 51 conspiracies.

This year's race centers on an unprecedented battle between precedent and vibes, with One Battle After Another dominating every precursor award while Sinners maintains strong momentum through SAG wins and broad Academy appeal. The hosts find themselves unusually aligned, matching on 23 of 24 predictions.

Shorts Categories Deliver Mixed Results

Documentary Short will likely go to All the Empty Rooms (Netflix), following Steve Hartman as he memorializes bedrooms of school shooting victims, though The Devil is Busy offers a compelling portrait of Planned Parenthood security officer Tracy

Two People Exchanging Saliva leads Live Action Short as 'the most fully formed film' - an absurdist French romance set in a world where kissing is illegal and slaps are currency

Animated Short favorite Papillon tells the Holocaust survival story of Jewish swimmer Alfred Nakash through beautiful hand-painted animation

Craft Categories Split Between Two Frontrunners

Frankenstein sweeps the visual crafts with wins predicted for Costume Design (Kate Hawley), Makeup and Hairstyling, and Production Design (Tamara Deverel)

One Battle After Another dominates technical categories with Michael Bauman (Cinematography) and Andy Jorgensen (Film Editing) both winning their first Oscars after years as department regulars

New Best Casting category heavily favors Francine Maisler for Sinners - 'She's cast nine best picture nominees in the last seven years' and is 'perhaps the most revered casting director in Hollywood'

Sound goes to F1 for obvious reasons ('Cars Go Loud'), while Visual Effects returns to James Cameron's Avatar Fire and Ash despite Amanda preferring 'things that look real believably'

Acting Races Create Maximum Uncertainty

Best Supporting Actor likely goes to Sean Penn (One Battle) despite his minimal campaigning - 'This is a category that this movie didn't even have a month ago'

Best Supporting Actress remains the night's biggest question mark, with Amanda switching to Wunmi Mosaku (Sinners) while Sean sticks with Amy Madigan (Weapons) based on her SAG win and 'Aunt Gladys' memorability

Jesse Buckley (Hamnet) appears locked for Best Actress after her devastating final 40 minutes - 'I walked out feeling crushed, overwhelmed by what she pulls off'

Best Actor creates the night's most volatile race between Michael B. Jordan's SAG surprise, Leonardo DiCaprio's quiet strength, and potential vote-splitting with Timothy Chalamet and Wagner Mora

The Historic Best Picture Showdown

One Battle After Another has achieved unprecedented dominance, winning 'PGA, DGA, WGA, ACE Eddie, ASC, BAFTA, Critics' Choice, Golden Globes' - making it 'the most dominant frontrunner in the history of the Academy Awards'

If One Battle wins Picture, Director, Screenplay, Editing, and Cinematography, it would be the first film since Schindler's List to sweep those five categories

The 'vibe shift' toward Sinners centers on Michael B. Jordan's perfectly timed SAG win during Oscar voting - 'You could just feel people being like excited for something new that they didn't expect'

Both hosts ultimately predict One Battle After Another for Best Picture despite acknowledging Sinners' emotional appeal and broad Academy support

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