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Robert Armstrong on coining the Taco trade

This Financial Times News briefing from Friday, April 3rd is hosted by Mark Filipino and covers major developments in U.S. politics, private credit markets, and tariff policy retrospectives.

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Key Takeaways
  1. 01

    Blue Owl Capital received redemption requests of almost 22% for its flagship fund and over 40% for its software lending fund

  2. 02

    Blue Owl's stock has declined almost 50% this year amid investor concerns about private credit valuations and software lending exposure

  3. 03

    Rob Armstrong coined the 'taco trade' after Trump's tariff backtracking showed he would 'cave' under economic or political pressure

  4. 04

    Gold prices went 'absolutely bananas' driven by central bank buying and retail momentum, starting as safety trade but becoming something else

  5. 05

    European markets had a strong 2025 partly due to expectations of increased fiscal spending and reduced U.S. dependence

  6. 06

    Private credit funds operate at much lower leverage than 2008, reducing systemic spillover risks despite current redemption pressures

  7. 07

    Attorney General Pam Bondi was fired after missing congressional deadlines and botching redaction of Jeffrey Epstein files

  8. 08

    Investors have largely pushed tariffs aside mentally, now focusing on war impacts through energy prices and inflation expectations

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This Financial Times News briefing from Friday, April 3rd is hosted by Mark Filipino and covers major developments in U.S. politics, private credit markets, and tariff policy retrospectives.

The episode features Eric Platt, the FT's U.S. investment editor, discussing Blue Owl Capital's mounting redemption crisis, and Rob Armstrong, the FT's U.S. financial commentator, reflecting on his famous 'taco trade' concept from Trump's tariff reversals.

Key topics include the firing of Attorney General Pam Bondi over Jeffrey Epstein file mishandling, massive investor withdrawals from private credit funds, and a year-long retrospective on how markets responded to Trump's initial tariff announcements and subsequent backtracking.

Trump Fires Attorney General Pam Bondi Over Epstein Files

President Trump fired Attorney General Pam Bondi after her department missed congressional deadlines to release Jeffrey Epstein files and botched initial redaction attempts, inadvertently exposing victim names

This marks the second high-profile cabinet ousting this year, following Homeland Security Secretary Christy Noam's firing last month

Deputy Attorney General Todd Blanch will serve as acting head of the Justice Department

Blue Owl Capital Hit by Massive Redemption Wave

Blue Owl disclosed redemption requests of almost 22% for its flagship $20 billion private credit fund and over 40% for its smaller software lending fund

The company's stock has declined almost 50% this year, with accelerated drops following the redemption disclosure - Eric Platt

Blue Owl claims there's a 'meaningful disconnect between the public dialogue and private credit' and what they're seeing in actual portfolio performance

Investor concerns center on private credit's opacity, software lending exposure, and questions about underlying asset valuations in non-trading markets

Private Credit Industry Faces Moderate Systemic Risk

Eric Platt advises being 'moderately concerned' about private credit but notes funds operate at much lower leverage than 2008, reducing spillover effects

Industry executives and analysts view current troubles as normal cyclical behavior: 'this happens in every asset class. Cycles come and go' - Eric Platt

The main risk is poor future returns rather than systemic financial crisis, as companies may start going bankrupt in larger numbers

The 'Taco Trade' and Trump's Tariff Reversals

Rob Armstrong coined the 'taco trade' after observing that 'on any point where the president was subjected to significant economic or political pressure of any kind, he would cave'

Markets initially fell sharply due to the 'scale of the tariffs' and 'complete incoherence of the design,' but rebounded as Trump implemented delays, carve-outs, and exceptions

The final tariff package emerged 'kind of by mistake' after the most economically and politically painful elements were removed

Safe Haven Assets Show Unusual Patterns

Gold prices went 'absolutely bananas' starting with central bank buying to reduce dollar dependence, then becoming a retail momentum trade rather than pure safety play

Treasury bonds haven't seen the expected rush because 'the ghost of inflation still hangs over the bond market' and any inflation signs are 'absolute poison to bond returns'

European markets had a strong 2025 partly due to expectations of increased fiscal spending on defense and reduced dependence on the U.S.

Current Market Focus Shifts Beyond Tariffs

Investors have 'largely pushed tariffs to the side mentally' and now focus on war impacts through energy prices and inflation expectations - Rob Armstrong

Temporary tariffs will expire in July while bilateral deals with several countries remain in place, but the Supreme Court ruled emergency tariffs illegal

Current market concerns center on economic growth, inflation, and energy price volatility rather than trade policy

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