Lucy Fisher hosts this episode of the FT's Political Fix podcast from the Buck's Head pub in Abram, Makerfield constituency. She's joined by Jennifer Williams, the FT's Northern England correspondent, and Jim Pickard, the FT's deputy political editor, as they analyze the upcoming by-election.

The Makerfield by-election is being called potentially the most historic in British history, with former Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham seeking to return to Westminster as a stepping stone to challenge Prime Minister Keir Starmer. The contest occurs against a backdrop of national unrest following violent incidents in Belfast and ongoing concerns about immigration and crime.

The recording takes place as Defence Secretary John Healey dramatically resigned in protest over military funding shortfalls, adding another crisis to Starmer's troubled administration. The panel examines voter sentiment on the ground, the dynamics between Labour and Reform UK, and what the result could mean for the future of British politics.

Voter Sentiment and Campaign Dynamics on the Ground

Immigration and cost of living dominate voter concerns, with political apathy transforming into anger directed largely at Keir Starmer according to local canvassing.

Both Andy Burnham and Reform candidate Robert Kenyon are competing to be seen as the authentic 'man of the people' representing local interests rather than Westminster elites.

"Whenever I have represented people, I've done it to the best of my ability, and it's always been this place where my heart is" - Burnham, emphasizing his local credentials at a hustings event.

Reform has successfully mobilized non-traditional voters who didn't participate in 2024 but plan to vote next Thursday, creating unpredictable turnout dynamics.

Gender Politics and Reform's Social Media Controversy

A pronounced gender divide emerged, with women more likely to support Labour while men gravitate toward Reform UK candidates.

Reform candidate Robert Kenyon faced scrutiny over past social media comments about women's driving abilities and abortion, but female supporters dismissed these as irrelevant decade-old remarks.

Carol Vorderman's leaflet highlighting Kenyon's controversial comments backfired with voters who saw it as outside interference in local politics.

"We need somebody with a backbone. We vote people in, they're supposed to do what they said they're going to do. None of them have so far" - local voter expressing frustration with political promises.

Burnham's Economic Promises and Labour Party Backlash

Burnham promised 'some recompense' for WASPI women seeking pension compensation, potentially costing £10.5 billion, before walking back financial commitments within 24 hours.

Labour MPs criticized Burnham's spending signals, with one ally messaging 'I see Andy Burnham has lost the plot again' and comparing his approach to Jeremy Corbyn's 2019 manifesto.

Gilt investors expressed concern about a potential Burnham premiership due to his tendency to avoid saying no to spending requests and his promise to 'end 40 years of neoliberalism.'

A housing court case this week highlighted Burnham's connections to Manchester property developers, undermining his 'For Us' campaign slogan about representing ordinary people.

Defence Secretary Resignation Rocks Starmer Government

John Healey resigned as Defence Secretary after receiving only £13.5 billion for military modernization instead of the £18 billion he requested, calling Starmer 'unable' and the Treasury 'unwilling' to fund defense properly.

Healey demanded Britain reach 3% of GDP defense spending by 2030, significantly earlier than Starmer's vague commitment to achieve this target sometime in the next Parliament by 2034.

The resignation came just as Starmer planned to announce the defense investment plan as a legacy achievement, creating a nightmare scenario for the embattled Prime Minister.

Healey had promised not to return 'with the begging bowl' after securing initial defense funding increases, but rising threats from Russia and new NATO commitments forced him to seek additional resources.

Starmer's Fightback Strategy and Personal Rivalry

Starmer called in junior ministers Monday to signal he won't 'roll over' if challenged, telling them 'I'm not perfect, but I am getting better in the job' and warning their positions depend on his survival.

The rivalry between Starmer and Burnham is 'really, really personal' according to sources, dating back to Burnham's reluctance to back Starmer's 2020 leadership bid and subsequent disloyal interventions.

Starmer made jokes about Burnham at Christmas drinks, including references to his multiple 'boyhood teams' and inability to find his way to Westminster, reflecting the personal animosity.

Despite widespread pessimism among Downing Street staff, Starmer remains personally determined to fight, viewing Burnham as a 'lower division' politician trying to challenge a 'Premier League' leader.

Post-Election Scenarios and Political Calculations

Burnham's team is split between moving immediately to capitalize on momentum versus delaying to better prepare for the complexities of governing and upcoming budget challenges.

Cabinet ministers warn that any new Prime Minister faces an immediate path into a 'very difficult and important budget' followed by a spending review, requiring careful preparation.

Starmer allies are promoting the theory that Burnham should focus on the Greater Manchester mayoral campaign he triggered before pursuing national leadership, hoping to dissipate his momentum.

Reform's strong local election performance across England, Wales and Scotland suggests continued momentum despite potential by-election losses, with the party maintaining 8-10 point polling leads nationally.