This Financial Times news briefing covers major geopolitical and economic developments on Tuesday, May 12th, hosted by Mark Filipino.

The episode examines the deteriorating U.S.-Iran ceasefire, the upcoming Trump-Xi summit amid ongoing trade tensions, UK Prime Minister Starmer's political crisis following electoral losses, and the impact of Middle East conflict on Gulf financial centers.

Key contributors include Gideon Rockman, FT's chief foreign affairs commentator, and Nico Perazi, the FT's Gulf business correspondent reporting from Dubai.

U.S.-Iran Ceasefire Collapses as Peace Talks Stall

Trump described the month-long ceasefire as having a '1% chance of living' after rejecting Iran's latest counterproposal, calling it 'a piece of garbage'

Washington and Tehran have exchanged peace proposals since the April ceasefire began, but remain deadlocked over Iran's highly enriched uranium stockpile

Trump-Xi Summit Tests Trade War Dynamics

China holds the trade advantage after restricting critical minerals exports in response to Trump's 145% tariffs, forcing U.S. tariff reductions - Gideon

Ford Motor closed production lines due to China's rare earth restrictions, demonstrating the effectiveness of Beijing's retaliation strategy

NVIDIA warns that U.S. tech export restrictions will backfire by spurring indigenous Chinese AI development

Taiwan independence language represents the summit's biggest potential diplomatic shift, though Trump is unlikely to change U.S. position

UK Political Crisis as Starmer Faces Resignation Calls

Prime Minister Starmer acknowledged public frustration after Labour lost hundreds of seats in local elections but refused to resign

Three parliamentary private secretaries resigned immediately after Starmer's speech, publicly demanding he step down

UK 10-year government bond yields hit 5%, underperforming European markets amid political uncertainty

Gulf Financial Centers Hit by Iran War Disruption

The Gulf region was positioned for its first $1 billion deal fee year in two decades before the Iran conflict disrupted merger activity - Nico

UAE IPO market has seen zero offerings since January 2024, while M&A volumes dropped significantly in April

Dubai financial center towers suffered physical damage during attacks, prompting international firms to temporarily close offices

Major firms including Bain Capital, Hill House, and Citadel continue expanding despite conflict, though deals now take longer with adjusted valuations