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Talk Your Book: Is the Nasdaq 100 in Another Bubble?

Michael Batnick and Ben Carlson host Mark Merricks, Global Head of Index Insights at NASDAQ, for an in-depth discussion about the NASDAQ 100's evolution and current market dynamics.

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Key Takeaways
  1. 01

    NASDAQ earned $854 million in licensing fees in the past 12 months, with around a third from the QQQ ETF alone

  2. 02

    The NASDAQ 100 ecosystem now encompasses $1.4 trillion in total assets, representing 35% growth over 2024

  3. 03

    New quarterly reconstitution rules replace annual updates, with fast-track entry for top 40 companies by market cap

  4. 04

    NASDAQ 100 has delivered 15% annualized earnings growth for 20 years, matching its 15% stock performance

  5. 05

    Nine of the top 10 NASDAQ 100 companies today trade at reasonable PEs, versus nine trading over 100 PE in 1999

  6. 06

    The probability of eight largest companies randomly listing on NASDAQ is just 0.4% - it's not coincidental

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Michael Batnick and Ben Carlson host Mark Merricks, Global Head of Index Insights at NASDAQ, for an in-depth discussion about the NASDAQ 100's evolution and current market dynamics.

The conversation covers the massive $1.4 trillion NASDAQ 100 ecosystem, recent rule changes enabling faster inclusion of large companies, and fundamental differences between today's market and the 1999 dot-com bubble. Merricks provides detailed analysis of licensing revenues, index methodology updates, and valuation metrics that distinguish current conditions from previous tech bubbles.

The $1.4 Trillion NASDAQ 100 Ecosystem Breakdown

The NASDAQ 100 ecosystem reached $1.4 trillion in average 2025 assets, growing 35% over 2024 and ranking second only to the S&P 500 among global indexes.

ETFs comprise $587 billion of the ecosystem, with QQQ at $351 billion, plus $75 billion in mutual funds, $647 billion in derivatives, $51 billion in structured notes, and $52 billion in insurance products.

"NASDAQ earned $854 million in licensing fees in the past 12 months, of which around a third are from the Qs" - highlighting the massive revenue stream from index licensing.

The eight largest companies globally by market cap are all NASDAQ-listed, with only a 0.4% probability this occurred randomly - "It's not random" - Mark.

Modernizing Index Rules for Today's Market Reality

New quarterly reconstitution rules replace the previous annual December-only updates, addressing how companies now stay private longer and go public at massive valuations.

Fast-track entry allows companies ranking in the top 40 by market cap to be evaluated on the seventh trading day and added shortly after if eligible.

Float requirements were updated from requiring 10% public float to a scaled inclusion system that gradually increases representation until reaching one-third market value float.

Net Interest by Mark Rubinstein highlighted the need for rule modernization, noting how market structure has radically changed since the original index construction.

Why This Isn't 1999: Fundamental Differences

"Last 20 years, annualized performance is around 15% a year. Earnings have been compounding at about 15% a year on this index for the last 20 years" - Mark, showing performance matches fundamentals.

Current forward PE is around 26% versus over 100 in the late 1990s, with the index on track for 45% year-over-year EPS growth this quarter.

Net margins today show 20% of companies between 50-100% margins versus zero in 1999, while 10% had negative margins in 1999 compared to minimal today.

"Nine out of the top 10 names were at a PE of 100 or more. Today, it's the exact opposite. Most of the names are like under 40 PE" - Mark.

The NASDAQ 100 now represents over 50% of the S&P 500 versus 10-15% in the late 1990s, making an 80% collapse fundamentally different in market impact.

Product Evolution and Investor Access

QQQM launched in late 2020 as a lower-cost alternative at 15 basis points versus QQQ's 18 basis points, designed for long-term buy-and-hold investors.

QQQM has reached $90 billion in assets as of the recording date, demonstrating strong demand for cost-efficient NASDAQ 100 exposure.

BlackRock and State Street recently gained access to use the NASDAQ 100 name, expanding beyond the original Invesco partnership that began in 1999.

"Fun fact, by the way, Nasdaq was the original owner of the Qs. We only transferred it to PowerShares, which was a predecessor company of Invesco, several years after the fact" - Mark.

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