In this episode of the All In Podcast, host Jason Calacanis is joined by besties Brad Gerstner, founder of Altimeter Capital, Chamath Palihapitiya, founder of Social Capital, and David Sacks, co-founder of Craft Ventures, to discuss the shifting landscape of technology, finance, and policy.

The hosts begin with a deep dive into the public markets, analyzing SpaceX's textbook IPO at a $1.75 trillion valuation and predicting upcoming listings for OpenAI and Anthropic. They debate the rising operational costs of AI, highlighting Chamath's revelation that token spend is doubling every 45 days with minimal productivity returns. This leads to a broader discussion on how enterprises like Uber and DoorDash are managing token routing to optimize ROI, and whether open-source models are losing ground to closed-source frontier giants.

Finally, the conversation shifts to geopolitics and domestic policy. The besties analyze reports of China restricting overseas access to its top AI models and the critical energy bottleneck facing U.S. data centers. The episode culminates in a celebration of the launch of 'Trump Accounts' under the Invest America Act, a bipartisan initiative championed by Brad Gerstner to provide tax-advantaged investment accounts for every American child.

The Trillion-Dollar IPO Rush: SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic

SpaceX executed a textbook IPO, raising $75 billion at a $1.75 trillion valuation on roughly $35 billion of forward revenue.

Anthropic has confidentially filed for an IPO, with Gavin Baker predicting the company could exit 2026 with over $100 billion in revenue.

OpenAI's revenue has reportedly ticked back up, with rumors pointing to a $70 billion run rate by the end of the year, though corporate restructuring adds complexity to its IPO timeline.

Altimeter Capital remains an enthusiastic buyer of both OpenAI and Anthropic at scale, with Brad noting that "once a company is valued at over $1 trillion, the get-rich-quick schemes are over" but they remain strong compounders.

The Enterprise AI Reckoning: Token Costs vs. Real ROI

Chamath Palihapitiya warned of a looming corporate reckoning, stating, "Right now, our token costs are doubling every 45 days... and downstream productivity is maybe 5% max."

An analysis of S&P 500 earnings growth reveals that the actual ROI of AI for the S&P 493 is currently between 0% and 2%, with most growth driven by inflation-based pricing power and stock buybacks.

To combat skyrocketing token costs, sophisticated enterprises like Uber and DoorDash are building middleware to dynamically route simple tasks to cheap open-source models while reserving expensive frontier models for complex tasks.

Despite the push for open-source alternatives, closed-source models are dominating corporate budgets, with open-source enterprise spend dropping from 19% to 11% over the past year.

Sovereign AI and Geopolitical Chess: China Tightens Control

The Chinese Communist Party is reportedly considering restricting overseas access to its top open and closed AI models, including Alibaba's Qwen and Z.AI's GLM 5.2, due to national security concerns.

U.S. policymakers are unified in their desire to maintain an AI lead over China, with Brad noting that "GLM 5.2 has watermarks from Mythos all over it," proving Chinese distillation of American models.

National sovereign AI strategies are accelerating globally, with Japan investing $6 billion in the Neoterra consortium to focus on physical AI and robotics, while the UAE and Saudi Arabia develop localized Arabic LLMs.

The ultimate bottleneck for AI scaling may be energy rather than software, as the U.S. is projected to be "about three entire Californias worth of energy short" by 2050.

Trump Accounts: Launching a Capitalist Revolution for Kids

The 'Trump Accounts' app, established under the bipartisan Invest America Act, went live on July 4th, securing over 1.5 million sign-ups and $1 billion in deposits in its first 24 hours.

The program provides a tax-advantaged investment account for children, allowing up to $5,000 in annual tax-free contributions from family and $2,500 tax-free from employers, compounding in the S&P 500.

Major philanthropic commitments anchored the launch, including over $6 billion from Michael and Susan Dell, $350 million in SpaceX shares from Gwynne Shotwell, and a $100 million personal donation from Brad Gerstner.

The initiative aims to transition America from 50% equity ownership to over 70%, with Brad stating, "The antidote to more socialism is more capitalism, and... this is more capitalism."

Resources Mentioned

Love or whatever it is; a novel. 1960

Hermes agent, which is not a French company, by the way. They just use French names. It's Nouveau Research or whatever it is. I started playing with that. It's a very peculiar piece of software, but

National Security Intelligence

outside of China. Why are they doing this? Well, they're, they're making any theft or leaks of AI research a national security offense, and they want to control who can fund Chinese AI labs. And we