Key ideas from James van Geelen

• James Van Gielen's Satrini Research piece went viral, causing market moves and forcing banks to respond to client questions about the 'Satrini scenario'
• AI capability curve has accelerated from 2 minutes to 8-16 hours of autonomous work on complex tasks in just two years
• Cost of AI inference per cognitive task has dropped 10-30 times over the past year, making previously uneconomical tasks viable
• Private credit systems built on stable assumptions may face stress if AI disrupts white-collar workers with 780 FICO scores
• Agentic AI could eliminate network effect moats by enabling price comparison without human tedium or friction
• Enterprise software pricing power may erode as companies can credibly threaten to use AI alternatives in contract negotiations
• A prediction market on Kalshi now trades the 'Satrini scenario' at 11.6% probability with specific economic triggers