Key ideas from Rory Johnston

• Oil prices surged from $72 to $100+ per barrel in just over a week, with Brent technically entering bear market territory down 20% from highs
• The Strait of Hormuz closure represents a 20 million barrel per day supply loss - equivalent to peak COVID demand destruction in March 2020
• Asian jet fuel prices briefly hit over $200 per barrel as refineries preemptively cut run rates to avoid complete shutdowns
• Iraq has already shut in over 3 million barrels per day of production - matching the feared Russian supply loss from 2022
• Rory Johnston warns oil could reach $200+ per barrel if the strait remains closed, calling this 'the mother of all supply shocks'
• Russia emerges as the primary beneficiary, with India resuming Russian oil imports after receiving sanctions waivers from the White House
• Strategic Petroleum Reserve releases face political resistance despite this being the exact scenario SPRs were designed to address
• Export bans being considered could create domestic shortages rather than solving pump price issues due to regional supply chain complexities